As the early win total projections begin to trickle in, can the Minnesota Timberwolves manage to finish in the top four in the Western Conference?
The Minnesota Timberwolves were a top-four team in the Western Conference for much of November and December, and flirted with home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs up until Jimmy Butler‘s injury in the last game in February.
The Wolves went just 10-13 in games that Butler missed, and ultimately were forced to beat the Denver Nuggets in the final game of the regular season just to lock-in the No. 8 seed and the right to face the 65-win Houston Rockets, who beat Minnesota in five games.
Simply by staying healthy, it’s fair to assume that the Timberwolves may have managed to, at the very least, flip that 10-13 record to 13-10, which would have been enough to be the No. 3 seed in the West. That’s right: only three more wins would have equaled the No. 3 seed, leapfrogging, San Antonio, New Orleans, Utah, Oklahoma City, and Portland.
(It’s also reasonable to assume that the Woles would have been better than 13-10 had Butler been healthy; the Wolves were 37-23 with Jimmy G. in the lineup, a .617 winning percentage, which would be more like 14.5 wins in those 23 games. But I digress.)
The Timberwolves haven’t gotten worse in the offseason, either. Losing Jamal Crawford will be a good thing in the long run, and replacing Nemanja Bjelica with Anthony Tolliver will probably be a better fit for the bench unit, anyway.
Derrick Rose‘s impact over a full season remains to be seen, and along with Josh Okogie‘s role is probably the biggest question mark heading into next year.
As for the other teams in the West…
The Warriors are the Warriors, and will be the best team next year. Houston, on the other hand, will almost surely be worse, due to aging and natural regression, plus the loss of Trevor Ariza and the likely acquisition of Carmelo Anthony, who will take those minutes and some of Luc Mbah a Moute‘s — a clear downgrade.
Utah will be in a similar spot if not better, and Denver will be dangerous with improved help. (Remember, Paul Millsap played in just 38 games last year.)
The Spurs will be worse, as they lost Kawhi Leonard (yes, I know he only played in a few games last year), Danny Green, and Kyle Anderson. DeMar DeRozan remains somewhat overrated, and the Western Conference is tough, as it turns out.
Oklahoma City is a complete wild card, as the bench looks suspect but retaining Paul George and jettisoning Anthony were shrewd moves.
The Pelicans and Trail Blazers have largely treaded water and will also be in similar spots to where they were in 2017-18.
The Lakers added LeBron James, so they’ll be in the conversation for the playoffs, despite filling out the rest of their roster with what is largely flotsam.
Sacramento, Phoenix, Memphis, Dallas, and the Clippers will all be bad and likely aren’t going to contend for a playoff spot.
So, where do the Timberwolves fit? Assuming nothing crazy happens between now and opening night, they should be in the No. 3 to No. 5 range, just as they were for much of last year. A .617 winning percentage would put them at 50.5 wins, which would have been good enough for the No. 3 seed last year, although that may not be the case next time around.
It’s also fair to guess that they’ll improve, due to growth from Towns and (hopefully) Wiggins, as well as a second year playing alongside Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson, and Jeff Teague.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, for his part, has ranked the Timberwolves in the No. 5 spot (Insider subscription required) in his early projections, predicting 49.6 wins and a finish behind Golden State, Utah, Houston, and Denver, in that order. Not too shabby.
Even though the lazy narrative is that the sky is falling and everyone hates each other, let’s not forget that this squad was fairly successful for much of last season.