Minnesota Timberwolves: Best-case, worst-case for Derrick Rose

Worst-Case Scenario

Since his infamous injury during the 2012 playoffs, Rose played in only 61 games over the next two seasons. And even when he was healthy, the uncertainty on whether he was going to be available and fully committed for the next game was a burden for first the Bulls, and then the Knicks during the 2016-17 campaign.

The situation he was put in down the stretch of the season with the Wolves wasn’t exactly conducive to success. In nine regular season games, he shot 23.3 percent from 16 feet or further. Of course, Rose has never been a good outside shooter; over 495 career games, his 3-point percentage is just 29.6.

To make matters even worse, he was forced to play real rotation minutes from his first game because of Jimmy Butler‘s injury. No time to adapt led Thibs to play three-guard lineups at times with combinations that included some combination of Rose, Jamal Crawford, Jeff Teague and Jones.

Between Crawford’s defensive issues and overall size limitations from the four guards, it was consistently difficult for this rotation to defend modern small forwards. Ultimately, three of the five lineups with them together on the court had a terrible defensive rating.

Projection

Supposing the chance to watch him play an 82-game schedule, with the comfort level reached by familiar faces that believe in you, it’s fair to assume that he should play better than the last quarter of the 2017-18 season.

Worst-case is that Rose will score 7-9 points per game and be an awkward and inefficient fit. With Jamal Crawford gone, he will figure to slide into that type of combo-guard role (although he’ll be more useful on fast breaks) and coexist with Tyus Jones in the second unit. While the Rose re-acquisition doesn’t necessarily mean that the Minnesota-born point guard is going to be overshadowed and buried on the bench, but his role still could be reduced.

Two things we learned from Rose’s post-injury game is that he still has not improved his 3-point shot and he does not excel when it comes to shifting gears. While he used to be adept at driving and attackking the rim, that skill simply is not there anymore.

In a sheltered environment, he’s nothing more than a replacement-level guy.