Minnesota Timberwolves: FiveThirtyEight and RPM suggest a shot at the playoffs

It’s projection season, and some of the more popular models seem to favor the Minnesota Timberwolves more than one might expect.

It’s been a few weeks since the first Las Vegas win total lines came out.

The thought here is that the Minnesota Timberwolves are somewhat of a safe “over” bet. And if a couple of well-regarded projection models are to be believed, then the Wolves might clear that 35.5 mark with relative ease.

First, there’s the obvious caveat that no projection model is perfect, and that all these models are doing is projecting the most likely outcome, not necessarily what will or what should happen. There are plenty of variables, and while they each take into account potential injuries (which are also projections based on the history of individual players), there are plenty of other things — coaching is probably the most significant — that aren’t included in the equation.

ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus is an outstanding projection model that does a great job of measuring individual players, and the team projections are a combination of all of those numbers plus a multiplier based on a minutes projection, done subjectively by Kevin Pelton.

All that to say, the ESPN RPM projection (Insider subscription required) has the Wolves at 39.5 wins, good enough for No. 10 in the Western Conference. It also pumps out a playoff probability of 32 percent — surely higher than what almost any random Wolves fan would tell you.

After all, the team won 36 games last year and wasn’t close to making the playoffs, lost it’s top two power forwards and backup point guard and replaced everyone with guys on short-term deals, all while the rest of the West beefed up. Some might say the Wolves largely treaded water this summer.

But if you think that’s an optimistic take, hope on over to FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO forecast.

This projection has the Wolves at 43 wins with a 49 percent chance of making the playoffs. Would Wolves fans take a coin flip’s chance at a spot in the postseason? Every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

The weird thing about FiveThirtyEight’s projection is that it has Jake Layman out of the rotation entirely in favor of Treveon Graham and Jordan Bell playing only 10 minutes per game. Adjusting those minutes would probably give the Wolves a slightest bump, but a bump nonetheless.

The biggest difference between the two models in the West is the Sacramento Kings. While ESPN has the Kings winning 39.8 games and slotting in at No. 9 in the West with a 34 percent chance at the playoffs, FiveThirtyEight has them at 33 wins with just an eight percent chance at making the playoffs. Also, the Spurs are likely underestimated by each of the two projection models, and it’s important to remember that neither model takes coaching into account, a variable that always elevates San Antonio.

At any rate, there were certainly be other models releasing their projections soon, and now that rosters are largely set, we’re starting to have a clearer idea of how the West might shake out this season.