Breaking down the Minnesota Timberwolves’ struggles against star guards

The Minnesota Timberwolves have had a decent start to the season, but have struggled mightily when it comes to containing opposing team’s star guards.

Following the Minnesota Timberwolves‘ first 20 games of the season, the Wolves sit at a modest 10-10.

As the current No. 7 seed in the Western Conference, the defense must find significant improvement in containing elite guards if they hope to stay in the playoff hunt.

In the Timberwolves’ disappointing loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Dec. 4, the Wolves accomplished their goal of limiting MVP candidate Luka Doncic. That defensive performance has been the exception to the rule so far this season.

Off to a surprising start that has seen them sport one of the best offenses in recent memory, as shown by their ludicrous 116.5 offensive rating per NBA .com/stats, the Mavs’ 15-6 record can be attributed to the wizardry of Doncic. Through 21 games played, Doncic is averaging 30.3 points per game, 10.1 rebounds per game, and 9.2 assists per game while ranking in the 100th percentile in usage rate and assist percentage at his position, per Ben Falk’s Cleaning the Glass.

Needless to say, if the Wolves were expecting to come away with a victory in Dallas, they needed a way to limit Doncic’s impact. The Wolves accomplished this task, holding Doncic to 22 points, seven boards and six assists on 8-of-22 shooting — a lackluster performance from the generational 20-year-old.

Unfortunately for the Wolves, such performances have been uncommon when facing the star guards of the NBA.

Whether it is Devin Booker‘s shiftiness in the pick-and-roll, Bradley Beal‘s ability to attack both inside and out, or Trae Young‘s smooth ball-handling opening opportunities for he and his teammates, the Wolves have repeatedly yielded gaudy performances and stat lines from the league’s premier guards.

Upon analysis of each noteworthy performance, it is apparent that the Wolves are suffering from a litany of issues that stem primarily from their lack of a defensively-oriented guard.

As Robert Covington has transitioned to a stretch-4 role this season, his ability to guard smaller playmakers has been overshadowed by the necessity for him to guard the opposing team’s best wing player. Since Jarrett Culver is still growing accustomed to life in the NBA and Andrew Wiggins has now been tasked with being the Wolves’ primary playmaker and only threatening perimeter scorer, the task of defending the other team’s best guard has generally fallen on the shoulders of Treveon Graham.

Although Graham has provided an energy boost and demonstrated a willingness to make hustle plays, his horrific shooting and underlying defensive metrics have hampered the Wolves.

According to Cleaning the Glass, Graham’s on-court vs. off-court differential shows that the opposing team’s Effective Field Goal percentage increases by 6.8 percent when Graham is on the floor, placing Graham in the first percentile among all players with over 100 minutes played.

When reviewing Graham’s defensive assignments throughout the season, it is apparent that Graham has struggled to keep up with quicker guards.

In this first sequence, Graham fails to avoid a screen from Damian Jones, and due to his inability to keep up with the speedy Young, leaves Karl-Anthony Towns in a 2-on-1 that ends in the lob for Jones.

On the following play, because the Hawks look to be entering a similar pick-and-roll, Graham attempts to cut off Young but ultimately leaves himself vulnerable to Young’s favorite move, the right-to-left crossover into a pull-up 3-pointer.

Due to Graham’s defensive struggles, look for Josh Okogie to take over the starting duties, as he did in Dallas, for the remainder of the season. Okogie features stronger on-ball defense and has a knack for avoiding screens while pursuing his man through pick-and-rolls.

Despite Graham’s trials, the blame for the Wolves’ defense does not rest solely on his shoulders. As a team, the Wolves struggle in pick-and-roll situations and defending without fouling.

In the pick-and-roll, the Wolves will often attempt to have Towns drop in coverage, leaving the primary on-ball defenders responsible for overcoming screens and reestablishing position between their assignment and the rim.

A noticeable vulnerability of this defense is how it can be susceptible to allowing open looks from behind the arc.

For this play, Ish Smith initiates hand-off action with Bradley Beal that is meant to lead into a screen to Beal’s left for a potential 3-pointer or opportunity to attack the rim. Okogie attempts to aggressively cut off Beal’s movement left, but Beal wisely stops and hesitates a baseline drive to his right.

This hesitation from Beal leaves Okogie off-balance, allowing Beal the chance to continue into the screen from Thomas Bryant and nail a 3-point shot in front of a sagging Gorgui Dieng.

Unless defenders are able to avoid being ridden off by screens in these situations, elite scorers like Beal will savor every opportunity they have to either attack the rim, if the help defender comes up to hedge the 3, or settle for an open look from mid-range or downtown.

Previous matchups with potent shooters have included strong 3-point shooting nights for the likes of Trae Young (5-for-11), Donovan Mitchell (5-for-10), Devonte Graham (6-for-9), and Kyrie Irving (7-for-14).

Currently, the Wolves rank third in the NBA in opponent 3-point frequency and 27th in opponent mid-range frequency, per Cleaning the Glass. This in an encouraging sign for associate head coach David Vanterpool‘s preferred style of play on defense, but the key for the Wolves will be ensuring that they can minimize the number of open looks that their opponents have on such shots.

Finally, the Wolves’ difficulties on the defensive end have come from their inability to avoid fouling.

The Wolves are 18th in the league in opponent free throw rate, with opposing teams averaging 20.4 made free throws per 100 field goal attempts, per Cleaning the Glass.

Often the Wolves struggle to avoid yielding a large number of free throw attempts because of their inability to prevent offenses from attacking the rim, and specifically Towns. As a result of Towns’ reputation as a weak defender, teams often game plan around attacking the rim or having Towns switch onto a guard so that he can be beaten off the dribble.

Vanterpool has attempted to avoid switching scenarios for Towns, allowing him to remain around the rim and deter driving layups with his athleticism and vertical leap. However, stretch-five’s have shown to be difficult for Towns, as a space-and-pace offense similar to what the Wolves have implemented this season can leave Towns in no man’s land.

In this example, Devin Booker attacks Keita Bates-Diop in transition while Dario Saric slips a screen and runs to the strong side corner, leaving Towns in a difficult quandary. Unsure of whether to support Bates-Diop on the driving Booker or quickly close out on the open shooter because of Booker’s impressive playmaking that night, Towns is stuck standing between the two positions and leads to an eventual foul for the frustrated Bates-Diop.

Since the Wolves struggle to contain pick-and-rolls with elite playmaking guards such as Booker, opposing teams often have the choice between tossing an easy lob to a rolling big man, passing back to a pick-and-popping big, or driving for a layup that will likely result in free throws.

Masters of this craft have exploited the Wolves in this scheme for years, and the current season is no different.

Matchups with foul drawing experts have led to monotonous free throw performances that stars of the mid-2000’s would be impressed by: Devin Booker (11-for-11), Bradley Beal (13-for-14), Kyrie Irving (9-for-10), Trae Young (10-for-11).

To remedy this illness, and cure the Wolves’ of their mediocre defense, the best solution would be the acquisition of a 3-and-D specialist that can lock down all-star level guards, relieving both Towns and Wiggins of defensive pressure and allowing them to maintain energy for the offensive end of the floor. However, every team would like to have a player such as Patrick Beverley, Jrue Holiday, or Mike Conley.

Therefore, since such players are not readily available, it is imperative that the Wolves continue to work on improving their defensive positioning and techniques to avoid extraneous fouls and uncontested 3-point opportunities.

If these necessary improvements can be made, and the Wolves can receive efficient play from Towns and Wiggins, aspirations for a playoff seed may not be so inconceivable.