Minnesota Timberwolves Draft Rewind: Draft profiles of current Wolves players
Jarred Vanderbilt
Drafted: 2018, No. 41 by Denver
NBA Comparison: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
NBA Outlook Analysis
Coming out of Kentucky, Vanderbilt was viewed as a project. He did not have much of an offensive game, but played hard and was considered the best rebounder in the 2018 draft class.
This led him to be drafted No. 41 by the Denver Nuggets. One area that jumped out from his NBA outlook was the idea that he could be a point forward. While he was viewed as a great passer for his size, his handles were not great. Vanderbilt ultimately fell in the draft due in part to his history of injuries to his legs and ankles but was believed to be able to develop into a player that could start for a perennial playoff team.
Vanderbilt & Hollis-Jefferson Comparison
The first two seasons of Vanderbilt’s and Hollis-Jefferson’s careers have not been particularly similar. While Hollis-Jefferson played 107 games through his first two seasons and averaged 22.2 minutes per game, Vanderbilt has spent most of his time in the G League while playing in just 28 NBA games and a total of 115 minutes.
Looking at the per-36-minute numbers, however, the players look fairly similar. Hollis-Jefferson averaged 12.8 points while shooting 43.8 percent with 9.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists, while Vanderbilt has averaged 11.3 points on 51.9 percent shooting to go along with 10.0 rebounds and 2.8 steals per 36 minutes.
Evaluation of Player Comparison
The biggest difference between Vanderbilt and Hollis-Jefferson’s first two seasons is opportunity.
Hollis-Jefferson had the opportunity to play and start for the Brooklyn Nets while Vanderbilt has been stuck in the G League and on the bench, first in Denver and for 14 games so far in Minnesota.
While Hollis-Jefferson had plenty of opportunities to play in his first three seasons as a pro, his minutes have gone down the last two years due to playing on better Nets and Raptors teams, which has gone along with his play regressing.
After the 2019-20 season, Vanderbilt may have a better chance of seeing playing time for the Minnesota Timberwolves with the possibility of Juan Hernangomez leaving in free agency. If Vanderbilt is able to continue to improve his overall game and play consistent defense at the power forward spot, he can be a valuable asset to the team.
With that said, Hollis-Jefferson still is on track to have a better career than Vanderbilt. While he has not hit them consistently throughout his career, Hollis-Jefferson is willing to shoot threes and has been a valuable player for last year’s Nets playoff team and this year’s Raptors team who is in second in the East.
Vanderbilt needs to earn consistent NBA minutes before he can surpass Hollis-Jefferson. Therefore, he has so far fallen short of his pre-draft projection.
Jacob Evans III
Drafted: 2018, No. 28 Overall
NBA Comparison: Maurice Evans
NBA Outlook Analysis
The University of Cincinnati was an elite defensive program under Mick Cronin and shaped Jacob Evans into a very capable and willing defender.
Evans entered the NBA as a defense-first guard, but could also shoot effectively if he’s able to shore up his shot. While he was able to dictate pace coming out of college, he was viewed as too passive at times. Evans had a lot of above-average traits but did not do any single thing that was elite.
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Evans & Evans Comparison
While Jacob Evans has spent most of his first two seasons in the G League, Maurice Evans had a much more interesting start to his NBA career.
After playing 10 games in his rookie season for the Minnesota Timberwolves as an undrafted free agent, Mo played his next two seasons in Greece and Italy. Maurice made the Sacramento Kings roster the following season, where he played in 65 games and averaged 19 minutes/game.
Through Maurice’s first two NBA seasons, he averaged 5.8 points per game with a 44.4 field goal percentage and 31.8 3-point percentage, plus 2.7 rebounds per game. By comparison, Jacob has averaged 2.8 points per game with a field goal percentage of 33.7 percent and a 3-point percentage of 31.5 with just 0.9 assists per game.
Evaluation of Player Comparison
While Mo Evans was somewhat of a journeyman, playing for seven different organizations in his nine NBA seasons, he was a solid role player, averaging 19.4 minutes/game in his career. Maurice did not have eye-popping stats — his 8.9 points per game average in 2007-08 was a career-high — but was a good glue-guy in the NBA and was able to stretch the floor shooting a respectable 36.3 percent from deep for his career.
Meanwhile, Jacob has not met expectations on either side of the floor so far as a pro. Coming into the league, Jacob was tabbed as a great defensive player. However, so far in his career he has a defensive rating of 115 and a defensive plus/minus of -1.3. If Jacob ever wants to earn consistent minutes in the NBA he at least needs to become a positive defender.
Offensively, Evans has been even worse. He has shot an abysmal 33.7 from the floor through his first two seasons while carrying an offensive rating of just 86.
Jacob Evans still has time to grow into a competent NBA player but needs to improve in a lot of areas. The first area should be on defense as the Wolves sorely need defensive help at the guard and wing positions. If Jacob can also improve his shooting numbers he has a real chance to earn a backup role at the shooting guard position.
As far as pre-draft projection, Jacob has a long way to go if he wants to surpass Maurice’s NBA career. Luckily for Jacob, it took Maurice four seasons into his professional career before he earned a consistent role on an NBA team.
Omari Spellman
Drafted: 2018, No. 30 Overall
NBA Outlook Analysis
Offensively, Omari Spellman was viewed as a player who could stretch the floor at the power forward position and grow into a pick-and-pop threat. He was viewed as undersized for his position coming out of Villanova but made up for it with his strength and quickness.
Defensively, Spellman has the ability to block shots but is also prone to making mistakes far too often.
Spellman & Payne Comparison
Before getting into the numbers and dissecting the impact of Spellman and Payne as players, the fact that Spellman’s NBA comparison heading into the draft is now ironic for Minnesota Timberwolves fans. Both players have a lot in common as they were both drafted by the Atlanta Hawks and were traded before the end of their second season to the Timberwolves.
As it stands, neither player is exactly a fan-favorite in Minnesota, but for different reasons.
Payne was a highly-touted prospect coming out of Michigan State but spent most of his first season in the then-D-League, playing only three games for the Hawks before being traded to the Wolves. Payne was traded for a first-round pick but it was clear after he suited up for the Wolves that this price was too high and caused an unsettling feeling for Wolves fans, to say the least.
Spellman, on the other hand, was brought to Minnesota in the D’Angelo Russell trade. While most saw him as a viable option at the power forward position, Spellman was unhappy about being traded to Minnesota and has reportedly asked to be waived. To date, that request has not been granted and he was sent to the Iowa Wolves for the remainder of the season.
Through two seasons of their careers, both players struggled on both ends of the floor. Payne averaged 4.1 points per game on 39.5 percent shooting and 24.4 percent on 3-point attempts while bringing down 3.3 rebounds per game.
Spellman has averaged 6.8 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting and 36.6 from beyond the arc while grabbing 4.3 rebounds per game. Both players were both minuses on the defensive end as Payne had a -1.2 defensive plus/minus and Spellman has a -0.8 defensive plus/minus.
Evaluation of Player Comparison
Spellman has been stuck in the G League since coming over to the Wolves, but his time there should not last as he has shown he can be a rotational player in the NBA. Whether he works things out with the Minnesota front office or he gets traded or waived this offseason, he will eventually find a spot on an NBA roster.
Payne, however, never lived up to his NBA potential. He lasted four seasons in the league before being cut by the Orlando Magic. He never averaged more than 6.7 points per game in his rookie season and finished with a career box plus/minus of -5.9.
It is safe to say that Spellman has already surpassed Payne’s disappointing career as he has already passed Payne in total minutes played for his all counting stats through just two seasons.