The Minnesota Timberwolves should avoid any temptation to trade for Zach LaVine.
A little over three years ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves traded away an injured Zach LaVine in a deal for All-Star Jimmy Butler.
We all know the story: the Wolves made the playoffs that year, flirting with a top-four seed before an injury to Butler forced them to beat Denver in the final regular-season game just to make the playoffs. In their first playoff series since 2004, the Wolves lost in five games to the Houston Rockets.
The following fall, Butler was gone. LaVine was healthy after recovering from a torn ACL, and there was suddenly some uncertainty regarding which side “won” the trade.
But, sitting here in 2020, the idea of re-acquiring for Zach LaVine is suddenly attractive — on the surface, that is.
Minnesota Timberwolves should not trade for Zach LaVine
First of all, this isn’t entirely a straw-man argument. There are plenty of outlets that have reported that the new regime in Chicago could be open to trading LaVine, and it stands to reason that new front offices would want to turn over the roster — especially of a team that hasn’t won north of 27 games in any of the last three seasons.
Additionally, the Wolves are looking for the elusive “third star”, and the current internal candidate, Malik Beasley, is about to hit restricted free agency.
So, what’s the argument for trading for LaVine?
The argument for the Timberwolves to trade for Zach LaVine
First, he’s a perfect positional fit as an athletic two-guard who has the ability to function as a secondary playmaker. If Beasley leaves, the internal candidates to start alongside D’Angelo Russell are some combination of Josh Okogie, Jarrett Culver, and Jaylen Nowell. The former two options are both below-average shooters and minus players offensively, and Nowell was a second-round pick last year who hasn’t yet had much of an opportunity at the NBA level.
If the Wolves want to take a significant step forward, they have to add some punch on the wing. Zach LaVine would provide just that punch.
LaVine is a 37.5 percent 3-point shooter for his career and hit on 38 percent of long-range attempts last year while launching a career-high 8.1 per game. He saw his turnover rate decrease last year despite an increased usage rate, and he also improved his rebounding rate.
Additionally, LaVine has attempted more shots within three feet of the basket over the past two seasons than ever before, and it isn’t close: 38.5 percent of LaVine’s field goal attempts were at the rim in 2018-19 and 2019-20, compared to just 28.1 percent over the first four years of his career.
Remember the early-career version of LaVine that seemed obsessed with pull-up jumpers from the dead zone just inside the 3-point arc? Over the past two seasons, 73 percent — nearly three-quarters — of LaVine’s shot attempts have come from outside the arc or within three feet of the rim. In his first four seasons, that number was only 62 percent.
No, he isn’t good defensively, but neither is Beasley. At least LaVine has the size, length, and athleticism to jump into passing lanes and recover as necessary — although the two players have identical career steal rates, for whatever that’s worth.
The argument against the Timberwolves acquiring Zach LaVine
Okay, so why would the Wolves not want a 25-year-old, athletic guard about to enter his prime?
Two reasons: contract and acquisition cost.
Zach LaVine’s contract is too much for the Wolves to take on
First, let’s cover the contract. LaVine has two years and $39 million left on the extension he signed in Chicago, broken out evenly into $19.5 million in each of the next two seasons. That’s a ton of money to pay someone who is not a two-way player and has yet to truly and thoroughly dominate on offense.
By contrast, Beasley is likely to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $12 to $14 million, with something around $15 million at the absolute high end. On the Hollinger & Duncan podcast, former front office executive John Hollinger floated similar figures as a target for Beasley.
Additionally, we broached this topic a few weeks ago as perhaps the toughest choice facing the Minnesota Timberwolves this offseason.
If we take the middle point — let’s call it $13.5 million per season for three or four years — this is almost a no-brainer.
Does LaVine have a higher upside? Sure. Is he better right now? That’s debatable, but most metrics would suggest otherwise. To cite two metrics, neither of which is the end-all, be-all, if we take the last two seasons, LaVine has a Win Shares per 48 Minutes on Basketball-Reference of just .076 compared to Beasley’s .089. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus agrees, with LaVine’s last two years averaging a -0.53 and Beasley’s mark a +0.39.
And while LaVine is more expensive in each of the next two seasons, he’s due to hit free agency at the age of 27, just entering his prime.
That means that the Wolves would either have the pleasure of A) figuring out how to give him a huge extension, B) flipping him in another trade as to not lose him for nothing, or C) losing him for nothing in free agency come 2022.
Acquisition cost for Wolves to acquire Zach LaVine
Now, let’s talk about the acquisition cost. As we’ve previously discussed here at Dunking With Wolves, the Bulls would almost certainly require the No. 1 pick along with Jarrett Culver in order to surrender the age-25 and age-26 seasons of LaVine’s career, plus the expiring contract of James Johnson to make the salaries work.
The Bulls would probably ask for another pick, too, but Gersson Rosas and the Wolves would surely push back on that request. Adding No. 17 or even No. 33 this year would be too much, and the Wolves don’t have any 2021 picks to trade.
Landing Zach LaVine would not be worth it for the Timberwolves
Giving up the No. 1 pick and last year’s No. 6 for a dynamic offensive player who is being overpaid for the next two years versus standing pat, keeping your trade chips, and retaining Beasley for something like two-thirds of the cost?
Not worth it. As much as Wolves fans love Zach LaVine and how perfect he would fit within Ryan Saunders’ offense, the acquisition cost, the contract, and the alternative of keeping Beasley at a lesser cost all tips the scales in the direction of not making a trade.
Now, if LaVine continues to improve over the next two years and hits the free agent market in 2022, that could be a different story…