Not much has gone right for the Minnesota Timberwolves this year. What started as a promising season with a roster full of intriguing talent has spiraled into a complete disaster.
Injuries to key players, poor roster construction, and ineffectual coaching have all played an equal role in Minnesota’s current struggles. At 6-18, the Wolves are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the worst record in the NBA.
Through the darkness, there have been a few rays of sunshine that fans of one of the most inept franchises in all of professionals sports can enjoy.
Indeed, Jaylen Nowell’s ascent is one of the biggest bright spots for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaylen Nowell shining in breakout second season
Nowell, a second-round pick in 2019, played sparingly in his rookie season, appearing in just 15 games for the Timberwolves. The 21-year-old Washington product began this season in a similar fashion, only appearing in two of Minnesota’s first 16 games. However, the last eight games have been a different story entirely.
Since Jarrett Culver went down with an ankle injury two weeks ago, Nowell has exploded on the scene and proven he belongs in the NBA. Our own Ben Beecken suggested that his role increase, and that’s exactly what has happened. Nowell has not disappointed.
The second-year guard has played no fewer than 15 minutes in each of Minnesota’s last eight games while averaging 13 points per contest with 47.5/37.1/83.3 shooting splits (field goal, 3-point, and free throw percentages) in 19 minutes per game.
He’s scored more than 10 points in all eight games and has been an offensive spark coming off the bench.
The signs have been there all along hinting that this breakout was coming. Nowell was a star in the G League last season averaging 21.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game with a 49.2/43.6/73.3 split in 32.7 minutes per contest.
His impact on the team’s offense is undeniable as the Timberwolves average 107.1 points per 100 possessions while Nowell is on the court; that rate drops almost three points to 104.4 while Nowell sits.
Somewhat surprisingly, the impact he makes on the defensive end might be even more impressive. Minnesota gives up 114 points per 100 possessions with Nowell on the bench, as opposed to just 101. 9 in Nowell’s 171 minutes thus far.
His overall net rating of 5.2 is the second-best on the team behind Karl-Anthony Towns, who has only played in four games, and his on/off net rating of 14.8 ranks third on the team behind Towns and the other surprise breakout star on the Wolves, rookie big man Jaden McDaniels.
Through the first 24 games of the season, Nowell is the only player on the Timberwolves roster that has played at least 150 minutes with both a positive offensive and defensive rating according to FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric.
An eight-game stretch is a small sample size and has taken place entirely while Culver and Towns have been sidelined with injuries. So how does Nowell fit into the Timberwolves’ lineup when everyone is healthy?
One idea would be simply to play Nowell ahead of Culver and Josh Okogie. Both former first-round picks are struggling mightily this year. Okogie and Culver have been up and down the lineup, each even starting at power forward in KAT’s absence.
Frustrations with Okogie have compounded in the last eight games with Culver on the sidelines, which has, at least in part, led to Nowell’s ascent. In this time frame, Okogie is averaging just 3.6 points per game on 23.5 percent shooting in 18.6 minutes per game. It’s certainly possible that Saunders continues to give Okogie’s minutes to Nowell coming off the bench, with Okogie and Culver splitting minutes behind Anthony Edwards at the small forward position.
While Nowell could get more playing time off the bench, it won’t make much sense to bring Nowell into the starting lineup with a full roster because there are too many guards on the roster. Assuming a fully healthy lineup, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley are starting in the backcourt with top pick Edwards likely sliding in at small forward. McDaniels or Jarred Vanderbilt would start alongside Towns in the frontcourt.
Nowell won’t start ahead of Beasley, and Nowell isn’t quite as versatile as Culver or Okogie and won’t be starting at power forward any time soon. This means that Nowell’s natural spot in the rotation will likely be the backup shooting guard behind Beasley, playing with a second unit that should look something like Rubio, Nowell, Okogie/Culver, Vanderbilt/McDaniels, and Naz Reid at the backup center spot.
Another scenario that could free up minutes for Nowell is to trade one of Okogie or Culver. It’s no secret that the Timberwolves desperately need a power forward to plug in the frontcourt with Towns as a rotation including McDaniels, Vanderbilt, Jake Layman, Juan Hernangomez, and Ed Davis doesn’t quite cut it in the NBA.
Culver’s name comes up in almost every trade proposal that Timberwolves fans have concocted this year and may still have some trade value in just his second season. A Culver trade would be able to open up minutes for Nowell to thrive off the bench in an enlarged role and give him room to grow his game.
Still, the most likely scenario is that Saunders finds a way to split minutes between Okogie, Culver, and Nowell evenly with each probably getting 15 to 20 minutes a game while staying with the hot hand within each game. That means that each Okogie and Culver will likely see their playing time diminish by a few minutes per game to make room for Nowell.
Despite their struggles, the Timberwolves are saturated with young guard talent. While Nowell’s breakout campaign is a great development in an otherwise lost season, it could cause some rotation problems down the road.
If Nowell continues to play at a high level he should be given every opportunity to play, grow, and contribute to this young team that desperately needs a success story.