Former Minnesota Timberwolves wing Andrew Wiggins was the talk of the NBA earlier this year as he helped the Golden State Warriors to a somewhat surprising start to the season.
But lately, he’s looked a lot more like the Wiggins that Wolves fans watched for five-plus seasons.
Now that we’re at the All-Star break and a little over a calendar year past the trade, let’s check in on Wiggins’ first season in the Bay Area to this point.
Andrew Wiggins’ offense has not changed from his time with the Timberwolves
An early-season hot streak fooled many into thinking that Wiggins was suddenly a good shooter.
His shot mechanics have always looked the part. His 34.1 percent from 3-point range at the University of Kansas provided hope, although he’s only managed to finish one of his six seasons in the league north of that mark. That was in 2016-17, arguably his best season a pro, when Wiggins shot 35.7 percent from deep.
Unfortunately, that appears to have been the exception and not the rule.
Wiggins shot 40.6 percent from 3-point range through January of this year, a 20-game sample size. All the talk centered on Wiggins’ improvement from deep, the spacing he was helping to provide for Steph Curry and others, his ability to contribute as a secondary scoring option, and so on.
Since then, Wiggins has made just 28.6 percent from long-range over his past 16 games. For the season, his 35.1 percent mark would register as the second-best of his career, but that number has been heading in the wrong direction for more than a month now.
Warriors analysts have been grumbling about his free throw shooting of late. But if they were paying attention, they’d know that Wiggins’ 67.2 percent mark from the charity stripe so far this season is par for the course.
Over the last three seasons, Wiggins has made free throws at a 68.2 percent clip. It’s still a bit confounding, of course: over Wiggins’ first three seasons he shot 76 percent from the line. But the last 164 games have provided a new norm when it comes to the former first-overall pick’s efficiency.
Wiggins’ usage rate is down significantly while his 3-point rate is up. But his free throw rate is down and his assist rate has dropped from last year as well, although it’s in line with his career mark.
So far this year, 22 percent of Wiggins’ possessions have ended in spot-up opportunities, during which he’s produced only 0.84 points per possession, just 18th percentile league-wide according to NBA.com/stats.
Part of the narrative surrounding Wiggins is that he’s flourished as a secondary option in Golden State, whereas he was the first or second scoring option for the majority of his time in Minnesota. Recall, however, that his worst season was the 2017-18 campaign when he was the third option on offense behind Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns.
As the year has worn on, Wiggins has been progressively less successful as an ancillary offensive piece. When this season concludes, don’t be surprised to look up and see a stat line that is right in line with the past few seasons of his career.
Andrew Wiggins’ defense has improved since leaving the Timberwolves
For as much as his offense has stayed the same, Wiggins’ defense is absolutely improved.
Wiggins’ defensive metrics are all in a better place than in recent years. His ESPN Defensive Real Plus-Minus is 1.36, good enough for No. 9 among players listed as small forwards and by far the best mark of Wiggins’ career.
FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR and Bball-Index’s LEBRON are both positive, as well, with only Basketball Reference’s Box Plus-Minus metric suggesting that Wiggins has been a net negative on defense.
Wiggins’ block rate is 3 percent, a fantastic mark for a non-big and easily the best of his career thus far. He’s also grabbing defensive rebounds at a slightly better rate than he has over his first six seasons in the league.
According to Bball-Index, Wiggins has spent a combined 47.6 percent of his minutes guarding Tier 1 and Tier 2 offensive players. (Subscription required, full explanation of the tier assignments can be found here.)
His assignments are primarily shot-creating wings and not primary ball-handlers. The Warriors have Draymond Green and Kent Bazemore, both capable defenders, who continue to be options to soak up defensive possessions against primary ball-handlers on opposing teams.
(A previous version of this article listed incorrect defensive matchups by usage tiers for Wiggins. Those numbers have been corrected.)
Wiggins has done well with the matchups he’s been given this season and it’s undeniable that he’s improved. It’s a great sign for Wiggins that he’s continuing to improve in his age-25 season, speaking to both his desire to get better and the Warriors’ coaching staff and all-around organizational culture.
That said, let’s just not get too carried away regarding his all-around offensive improvement. The total package through 37 games is right in line with what he’s done for the majority of his first 454 games as a pro.
And that’s fine. Wiggins is a solid, rotation-worthy player and a plus defender. There’s a clear role for him on a playoff team, and he may be exactly that for the Warriors this year when it’s all said and done.