The Minnesota Timberwolves have a decent chance of getting a top-3 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. The official odds stand at about 27.6-percent, to be exact. Within that percentage, the Timberwolves have a 9.0-percent chance at the first overall pick, a 9.2-percent chance at the second overall pick, and a 9.4-percent chance at the third overall pick.
The first two overall picks are seemingly locked in, even before the draft lottery is set to occur. Cade Cunningham is as close to a generation prospect as anyone can get, as a 6-foot-8 do-it-all point guard, and Evan Mobley is one of the best modern big prospects we have seen since Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Davis.
The third pick is where things get interesting, though. There is a tier of two players – Jalen Suggs and Jalen Green – who are likely going to be considered here (honestly, even Jonathan Kuminga, as well).
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs
Green and Suggs are very different players. Suggs, on one hand, is the more pro-ready option. He’s a good perimeter defender, has shooting upside, and was a good playmaker when asked to play in that role during his time at Gonzaga.
Suggs has the ideal complementary skill set that would allow him to play alongside both D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards along the perimeter. He could be the primary ball handler or be a more complementary combo-guard.
Green, on the other hand, has more upside. He’s a highly athletic wing player that can score in a variety of ways – either using his touch shooting the ball or athleticism to get to the rim and finish (with a large layup package, as well).
Additionally, though, Green is a lot more raw and less-refined than Suggs.
That said, the best draft strategy will always be to select the best overall prospect. That is what the Timberwolves did in 2020 (according to their board) with Anthony Edwards, Leandro Bolmaro, and Jaden McDaniels.
Jalen Green and Jalen Suggs are close enough in terms of prospects to select the better fit – which Suggs would be with his complementary skill set. Green could be buried behind Edwards and Malik Beasley, but again, if Wolves general manager Gersson Rosas views Green as the better player, it would not be surprising to see him go that route.
Verdict: The Timberwolves should select Jalen Suggs if they are awarded the third overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.