Why the Minnesota Timberwolves might make a major offseason trade

The Minnesota Timberwolves aren’t going to have a semi-busy offseason. They’re either going to be extremely quiet, or they’re going to make a massive, earth-shattering, blockbuster move.

The 2020-21 offseason was a great example of a middling number of transactions. The Wolves made a trio of draft selections and a pair of draft-night trades while retaining a few players in restricted free agency.

This year? It’s all or nothing for Gersson Rosas and the Timberwolves front office.

Why the Minnesota Timberwolves might make a major offseason trade

For starters, the Wolves don’t have any draft picks and they have virtually no cap space. In order to make a splash, it has to be via trade. And we all know that Rosas loves to do whatever possible to cannonball into the waters of the NBA trade market.

The Wolves already have two max-contract players, and both are exceedingly unlikely to be moved. Karl-Anthony Towns is definitely not going anywhere, while D’Angelo Russell will almost certainly stay put but theoretically could be included in a major deal.

In terms of future draft assets, the Wolves own all of their own first-round picks and have an extra second-rounder in 2022. They do owe second-round picks to the New York Knicks in 2023 and 2026 and to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2024, but that’s it.

Minnesota’s books include plenty of reasonably-priced youngsters, including Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell, who each have a pair of partially-guaranteed years remaining, as well as Jaden McDaniels, who outperformed his draft position significantly as a rookie.

There are other valuable contracts on the books, too, including Jake Layman ($3.9 million) and Josh Okogie ($4 million). Each could be included as filler or added value to larger deals.

Here are the Wolves players most likely to be traded, listed in descending order by 2021-22 salary:

• Ricky Rubio: $17.8 million expiring
• Malik Beasley: $30 million over two years + team option ($16.5 million)
• Juancho Hernangomez: $7 million + team option ($7.5 million)
• Jarrett Culver: $6.4 million + team option ($8.1 million)

Again, the rest of the Wolves’ contracts are either good-to-great values (Reid, Nowell, McDaniels, Okogie, Layman) or max contracts (Towns and Russell). Almost by default, any trade the Wolves make is going to be significant.

If the Wolves want to do something big, Beasley and/or Rubio would have to be involved, along with future draft picks. Depending on how big the move is, Russell could be included as well.

Names like Ben Simmons and Bradley Beal would require Beasley and Russell and at least a pair of draft picks. The next tier of names, which could include names like Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, or Pascal Siakam, might require a bit less. Think Rubio instead of Russell, and maybe some protection on any future picks included in the deal.

The only world in which the Wolves make a “minor” deal would be along the lines of Culver and a future pick for an expiring contract and a second-rounder in this year’s draft, or something of that nature.

It’s far more likely that any deal involving the Wolves will be sizeable in nature. The alternative, of course, is that they do next to nothing and that the roster will look much the same in late October as it did in mid-May.