The Minnesota Timberwolves first-round pick is headed to Golden State. How much of an impact will losing the selection have on this season?
The Minnesota Timberwolves do not currently have a pick in the 2021 NBA Draft after the ping-pong balls failed to bounce in the team’s favor on lottery night.
Minnesota entered the lottery with a 27.6 percent chance to have their pick fall within the top three, allowing them to keep the selection. Instead, Minnesota finished seventh. Now, the No. 7 overall pick belongs to the Golden State Warriors as the final piece of the D’Angelo Russell trade from February 2020.
Discussion surrounding the inclusion of a future first-round pick has been hotly contested with varying degrees of value placed upon that pick. While the final outcome of the trade will be debated for years to come, the immediate impact of losing a first-round pick can be analyzed more concretely now that we know the pick conveys at No. 7.
A look at the franchise history involving No. 7 overall selections as well as the recent history of rookie contributions allows us a glimpse into the immediate impact losing the pick may have on the Timberwolves’ aspirations for the 2021-22 season.
Minnesota Timberwolves history with the No. 7 pick in the NBA Draft
It is safe to say that the No. 7 pick has not been kind to Minnesota throughout the franchise’s history.
Minnesota drafted Luc Longley with the seventh-overall selection in 1991 before proceeding to trade him after two-plus seasons after Longley underperformed in a Wolves uniform. However, Longley revived his career in Chicago, winning three championships as a starter for Michael Jordan’s Bulls.
Minnesota took another chance on a No. 7 overall selection in 2006, trading away No. 6 pick Brandon Roy for the rights to Randy Foye on draft night. Minnesota also selected Corey Brewer, a two-time National Champion at Florida, with the No. 7 selection the following year.
Like Longley, both Foye and Brewer were traded just a few years later after failing to live up to initial expectations, although both players turned into solid rotation players in the league.
Then in 2009, the infamous David Kahn Draft solidified the franchise’s cursed relationship with the No. 7 pick. The team owned both the No. 5 and No. 6 selections, drafting point guards Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn respectively. The Golden State Warriors then proceeded to select two-time MVP and three-time NBA Champion Steph Curry exactly one pick later.
Finally, Minnesota once again held the No. 7 position once entering draft night in 2017 and chose to trade away the rights to Lauri Markkanen as part of a trade package to acquire Jimmy Butler from the Chicago Bulls.
While the Wolves made the playoffs during the ensuing season, that trade paved the way for a tumultuous fallout that resulted in a complete overhaul of management, coaching, and 90 percent of the roster after Butler forced his way out via trade in the fall of 2018.
Notable players drafted at No. 7 in the NBA Draft
The No. 7 pick in the draft has historically joined a rebuilding squad with the expectation of providing additional scoring as a rotational player. In fact, the last No. 7 pick to reach the playoffs during their rookie season was Harrison Barnes in 2012-13 when he was selected by a Warriors team on the rise.
A look at recent No. 7 pick performances may provide meaningful insight into the lost value that Minnesota must account for in 2021-22.
Last year, the Detroit Pistons selected Killian Hayes, a French point guard who had previously played in the Basketball Bundesliga in Germany. Hayes showed promise during his rookie season, averaging 6.8 points and 5.3 assists per game and had flashes of brilliance as a passer but ultimately struggled to shoot the ball efficiently and was often overshadowed by fellow Pistons rookies Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, Hayes finished his 2020-21 campaign with -.081 Win Shares per 48 minutes for the struggling 20-52 Pistons squad. For perspective, this was still superior to the Wolves’ lottery pick in 2019, No. 6 overall pick Jarrett Culver.
For each season between 2017 and 2019, the Chicago Bulls rostered the No. 7 overall selection in Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr., and Coby White. All three Bulls players had respectable rookie campaigns, highlighted by a First Team All-Rookie award for Lauri Markkanen and Second Team All-Rookie honors for Coby White.
White finished the season with .026 Win Shares per 48 minutes while both Carter Jr. and Markkanen put up .080 Win Shares per 48, roughly comparable to the 2020-21 contributions from Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid respectively.
Denver had the No. 7 selection in the two years prior, drafting Emmanuel Mudiay and Jamal Murray. Mudiay struggled greatly during his rookie year, but Murray may have had the most productive rookie season of any No. 7 pick in recent memory.
As the Nuggets’ sixth man, Murray finished the year averaging 9.9 points per game and .037 win shares per 48, nearly propelling Denver to a playoff berth as they fell just one game shy of the No. 8 seed. In terms of Win Shares, Murray’s rookie contribution can most easily be equated to Josh Okogie’s performance for Minnesota in 2020-21.
While losing a pick in a highly-coveted 2021 draft class may sting to Timberwolves fans, history suggests that the No. 7 pick would not have moved the needle in a meaningful way for the 2021-22 season.
A timely free agent acquisition, trade, or organic development from one of the young players on the current roster will likely provide an equivalent boost to that of the No. 7 overall selection in terms of contending for the NBA postseason immediately — which is, after all, the ultimate goal in 2022.