Minnesota Timberwolves: Predicting Anthony Edwards’s stats

The Minnesota Timberwolves hit on the first overall pick in the 2020 NBA Draft with they made the decision to select Anthony Edwards, a wing from the University of Georgia. In his rookie year, he shined, finishing the season averaging 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists per game.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Predicting Anthony Edwards’s stat line

Edwards ended up finishing second in Rookie of the Year voting, particularly after a strong finish to the season, despite the Timberwolves’ lack of success. Over the course of the final 32 games last season, Edwards averaged 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists on shooting splits of 45/34/76 – those are very good numbers for a score-first wing player – and Edwards’s value is only going to increase as he presumably progresses as a player as well.

ASSISTS

Anthony Edwards progression as a passer this past season was notable while Chris Finch was installed as head coach of the Timberwolves. While he was never a primary creator (and should not be expected to be one), he displayed flashes of nice complementary playmaking along the wings, moving the ball in transition, and making the extra pass when needed.

The Timberwolves also lost Ricky Rubio, and Patrick Beverley isn’t the best creator, even as a veteran point guard. Edwards could take a step up from his 2.9 assist averages this past season, albeit probably not by too much.

PROJECTED 2021-22 ASSISTS: 3.5

REBOUNDS

Anthony Edwards was a solid rebounder considering his role this past season. He did not get better nor worse as the season went on, and Edwards gives about five rebounds nightly. There were three instances which saw Edwards grab 10 rebounds this past year, all of which were later in the season.  He brings the physicality wanted on the inside to be able to rebound and push the ball in transition.

PROJECTED 2021-22 REBOUNDS: 5.4

STOCKS (Steals + Blocks)

While each indivial stat, steals and blocks, may not be entirely useful on their own, the combined total is a bit more reflective of defensive activity – at least in the scope of off-ball defense. This past season, Edwards averaged about 1.5 stocks per game, which is great for a player whose primary contributions are going to be coming from scoring points.

The biggest improvement from Edwards going forward is going to have to be as an overall defender, though. Even if his scoring does not improve the remainder of his NBA career (even though that scenario is unlikely), becoming a high-level defender in addition to bringing his offensive skill set would only increase his value as a player.

PROJECTED 2021-22 STOCKS: 1.9

POINTS

Scoring, as hinted at before, is where Anthony Edwards makes his money. He is an elite rim finisher, shooting 65-percent at the rim according to Basketball Reference. From deep, though, he started last season on a cold streak, but was able to bring his overall percentage up to 33-percent from deep by the time the 2020-21 year ended.

If Edwards can slightly improve with his range (maybe 35-percent from 3) in addition to becoming more consistent, he can raise his scoring totals from his rookie season. However, one has to take into consideration that the Timberwolves are going to have Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell back healthy this year (or at least in the beginning of the season), and that will almost certainly take away from Edwards’ totals.

PROJECTED 2021-22 POINTS: 23

FINAL PROJECTED STAT LINE: 23 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 stocks