Minnesota Timberwolves: ESPN ponders ‘what if’ Towns improves his defense

Minnesota Timberwolves superstar Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the best 25 players in the NBA.

Two years ago, it would have been easy to argue that he belonged in the top 20 players, but lack of team success, injuries, and stagnation in growth on the defensive end of the floor has changed his national perception.

Now, ESPN is pondering a ‘what if’ that Timberwolves fans have been considering for years: what if Towns improves defensively?

Minnesota Timberwolves: ESPN ponders ‘what if’ Towns improves his defense

The question is asked as one of four ‘what if’ scenarios at ESPN.com, with each one explored by a different expert.

The Wolves portion was analyzed by Andre Snellings, who wrote a few hundred words on the idea of Towns improving his defensive impact.

There isn’t much groundbreaking about the idea — obviously, if Towns improves defensively he’ll be a clear-cut All-NBA player and will lead the Wolves to the playoffs — but the analysis includes some interesting context via advanced metrics.

Snellings starts by comparing Towns to Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid. It’s a worthy comparison point; it was only a few years ago that Towns was considered to be on the cusp of surpassing Davis and he was generally seen as better than Embiid overall, due to his durability and shooting prowess.

Now, Davis has won an NBA title as LeBron James’ sidekick and Embiid is a four-time All-Star, a three-time member of the All-Defense team, and a three-time All-NBA player. Despite some generally disappointing trips to the playoffs, Embiid’s Philadelphia 76ers have made it to the second round of the postseason in three of the last four years.

Towns, of course, is a two-time All-Star with one appearance on the All-NBA Third Team and one playoff appearance in six years, during which the Wolves were dispatched in just five games.

Snellings focuses entirely on the defensive side of the ball with this ‘what if’, noting that Davis and Embiid do a significant portion of their work off the ball, where Towns struggles immensely.

Here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly, from terrible defensive metrics to phenomenal offensive impact, all found at the above ESPN.com link:

"According to Second Spectrum, over the past two seasons, Towns has allowed 1.072 points per direct off-ball screen when it’s his man who sets the pick. This ranks 335th of 446 players to have defended at least 100 screens. And when the man Towns is defending is screened off-ball, Towns has allowed 1.183 points per chance and a whopping 1.5 points per direct pick. These both rank last in the NBA, 333rd among 333 players to have been screened off-ball at least 100 times.Towns’ off-ball defensive struggles also are captured in his impact on his teams’ defenses. The Timberwolves have ranked 28th and 20th in team defensive rating over the past two campaigns, with Towns posting a negative defensive real plus-minus in both. During the 2019-20 season, Towns had by far the highest offensive RPM among centers in the NBA, with a 5.8 that dwarfed then-future MVP Nikola Jokic’s 2.5 and Embiid’s 1.81. However, Towns also finished last among centers with a minus-3.68 DRPM, so his net score was far behind the other elite bigs."

There it is, all laid out in one spot. Towns has been one of the very best, if not the best, offensive big men in the league over the last three to four years.

But his defense has been nearly equally as bad. While he showed signs of improvement early and late last season, Towns has been unable to put forth an extended period of above-average defensive play at any point in his career.

Of course, if Towns is able to work well with the new coaching staff and if the addition of Patrick Beverley and the growth of second-year forward Jaden McDaniels can help Towns out in a significant way, look out.

Put simply, Towns could vault his way into the top-10 conversation simply by improving to above-average on the defensive end of the floor. His offense is that good.

Of course, if Towns is a top-10 player, then the Wolves are a shoo-in to be a playoff team. And at that point, the sky is the limit.