The initial Las Vegas over/under win totals for NBA teams are out over at WynnBet, and the Minnesota Timberwolves number is far too low.
Vegas win total over/unders are a fairly consistent guiding light when it comes to expectations for teams leading into the season, but this particular number is fairly obviously off.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Initial win total over/under is way too low
The Wolves finished the abbreviated 2019-20 campaign with a 19-45, a .297 winning percentage. The shortened 2020-21 season saw the Wolves go 23-49, which clocks in at a winning percentage of .319.
The WynnBet win total for the Wolves opened at 34.5. If the Wolves finished with the under and went 34-48, their winning percentage would be .415.
We can start by acknowledging that this would clearly be a fairly large step in the right direction. Teams don’t frequently improve their winning percentages by nearly 100 points year-over-year, and losing one less game while playing 10 more than last season would be massively impressive.
Of course, context matters. Karl-Anthony Towns only played in 50 of 72 games last season. D’Angelo Russell appeared in 42 and started only 26 due to a minutes restriction following his return after surgery. Malik Beasley only played in 37 of 72 games.
If you’re scoring at home, the Wolves three best players appeared in just 129 of 216 games, or 59.7 percent of potential games among the trio.
Plus, rookie Anthony Edwards came off the bench for the first 17 games of his career, and, frankly, wasn’t a good player for the first half of the season. He was a much different player down the stretch, playing at an All-Star-caliber level in the final two months of the campaign.
If any other team was missing their two max players for a combined 52 games in a season, it certainly feels as though that would be factored into their preseason win total the following year in a much more significant way.
Alas, the Timberwolves have not earned that sort of benefit of the doubt, and instead are still projected win just 34 games.
The only teams in the Western Conference with lower win total projections according to WynnBet are the Oklahoma City Thunder (23.5 wins), Houston Rockets (27.5 wins), and San Antonio Spurs (28.5 wins). Somehow, both the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings have higher projected totals than Minnesota, landing at 39.5 and 36.5, respectively.
In the Eastern Conference, only the Orlando Magic (22.5 wins), Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins), and Cleveland Cavaliers (26.5 wins) have lower projected win totals.
That places the Wolves with the seventh-lowest win total over/under league-wide. It’s in line with many of the offseason power rankings, which have also continually underrated the talent on the Wolves roster.
Put simply, it’s hard to see a (healthy) version of a team with Towns, Russell, Beasley, and the second-year version of Edwards finishing 14 games below the .500 mark.
Time will tell, of course, and while it’s understandable that folks are not believing that the Wolves will be a legitimate playoff contender this year, it’s still surprising to see them below the likes of Sacramento, New Orleans, Charlotte, and Toronto.