Now that we have a clear picture of what the Minnesota Timberwolves roster will look like on opening night, it’s time to debate the starting lineup.
To a casual Timberwolves observer or a national audience, Jarred Vanderbilt is not an obvious starter. But for Wolves fans who watched the majority of the 2020-21 season, the case for Vando to start at the 4 isn’t a tough one to make.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The case for Jarred Vanderbilt to start at the 4
Last season, the Timberwolves ranked No. 27 in defensive rebounds per game and No. 24 in defensive rebound percentage. In 2019-20, the Wolves were No. 18 in both categories. The year prior, they ranked No. 25 and No. 27.
Poor rebounding — especially on the defensive side of the ball — has been an ongoing issue.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the only constant and has been virtually the only player on the roster who rebounds his position at an above-average rate. Former head coach Ryan Saunders experimented with extremely small lineups, playing the likes of Josh Okogie and Jake Layman at the 4 alongside Towns. Rookie Jaden McDaniels almost exclusively played the 4 once he joined the rotation.
All three were below-average rebounders as power forwards, and with the majority of the wings and guards on the roster falling into the same category, it left Towns as the only player the coaching staff could rely upon to clean the glass.
After Saunders was fired, new head coach Chris Finch began to play McDaniels and the now-departed Juancho Hernangomez at the 3, trotting out Vanderbilt and backup center Naz Reid at the 4 with far more frequency than Saunders.
Vanderbilt finished with the second-best total rebound rate on the roster, next to little-used center Ed Davis, even edging out Towns, 17.5 percent to 17 percent. That means that of all available rebounds while Vanderbilt was on the floor, he grabbed 17.5 percent of them.
When it comes to the defensive glass, Towns led the team with a 26.4 percent mark. Davis was second, and Vando came in third with a 24.7 percent mark. Reid and Hernangomez tied for a distant fourth at 20 percent.
But it isn’t just rebounding. Vanderbilt led the team in steal rate, at 2.7 percent — an incredible mark for a player who primarily played power forward. He’s also a solid passer, managing a 9.3 percent assist rate, middle-of-the-pack on the team.
In addition to his rebounding prowess, Vanderbilt brings a level of hustle, energy, and toughness to the starting lineup. He delivers chaos in the frontcourt in a similar way to how Okogie can disrupt the backcourt of opposing teams. The best version of Vando is a terror on the glass and in the passing lanes, initiating the fast break and crashing the boards on both ends of the floor.
The downsides are all on offense. Vanderbilt does not have a jump shot to speak of, and he has terrible hands. A turnover rate of 15.9 percent is astronomical for a player with a usage rate of just 12.3 percent, and it’s almost entirely due to his problems with catching the ball in traffic.
The positives for Vanderbilt — at least for now, that is — start and end with the fact that he’s a low-usage player who can hang out in the dunker’s spot along the baseline and rebound the ball at an above-average clip. Alternatives at the 4 are McDaniels and newcomer Taurean Prince, who both provide legitimate floor spacing but will also expect to get up more shots while providing below-average rebounding.
McDaniels coming off the bench gives the reserve unit some additional scoring punch and will allow him to expand his offensive game, including opportunities as a creator with the ball in his hands.
The most likely scenario is probably that Finch will give both Vanderbilt and McDaniels opportunities to start at the 4 depending on matchups. But the case for Vando to be announced with the starters, even if McDaniels plays the 4 down the stretch in close games, is a pretty easy one to make.