ESPN has released an early win-loss projection for each team in the Western Conference, and their final total for the Minnesota Timberwolves is laughable.
The final record for each team was a mark arrived upon by panel voting among ESPN experts (subscription required), although it isn’t specified how many votes were cast or who these experts were.
ESPN’s projected win-loss total for the Minnesota Timberwolves is far too low
Let’s start at the top.
The first tier consists of six solid playoff teams, and there’s no argument here regarding those on the list: the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, and Golden State Warriors fill slots one through six.
The No. 7 to No. 10 seeds fall into the “play-in group” category. Here’s where things begin to get a bit dicey.
ESPN lists, in order, the LA Clippers, Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, and New Orleans Pelicans. None of these picks are crazy, and at this stage, putting the Clippers No. 7 and the Blazers No. 8 is probably the correct ranking.
The Grizzlies projected record here is 42-40, followed by the Pelican’s ghastly 37-45 mark. Somehow, ESPN’s voters didn’t think any team would manage to land anywhere between 37 and 42 wins, which is a massive gap that presumably underscores a fictional line signifying a drop-off between the top nine teams and Nos. 10 through 15 in the West.
The final category is led by the Sacramento Kings at No. 11, with a record of 35-47. Then, the San Antonio Spurs, at No. 12 with a projected win total of 34.
The Timberwolves aren’t listed until No. 13, with a record of 31-51. They are followed, of course, by the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets, who each have predicted records of 22-60 and are tied for No. 14.
Why are the Minnesota Timberwolves below Sacramento and San Antonio?
The most baffling thing about these rankings is that the Wolves are below the Kings and Spurs.
Yes, Sacramento finished with nine more wins than the Wolves last year, but the Wolves’ well-documented injuries and coaching shortcomings early in the season were a major factor in their 23-49 finish.
Remember — and this can’t be said enough — the Wolves’ best three players appeared in just 59.7 percent of potential games last season, or 129 of 216 contests. Anthony Edwards didn’t start for the first 17 games and didn’t become a true starting-caliber player until March.
While the Kings have a couple of solid veterans in Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield and a trio of exciting young players in De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, and Tyrese Haliburton, there simply isn’t the same level of star power in SacTown that there is in the Twin Cities.
Karl-Anthony Towns is far better than any single player on the Kings. Malik Beasley is better than Hield, and a healthy D’Angelo Russell is at least in the same tier as Fox. The March through May version of Edwards would even be a level above the Fox/Russell tier.
As for the Spurs, well, they’re a 33-39 team that lost their three best players in DeMar DeRozan, Patty Mills, and LaMarcus Aldridge. There’s young talent there in the form of Keldon Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker, and Devin Vassell, but there’s not much roster continuity or hope that they’ll suddenly gel and be anywhere near as good as they were last year.
All that to say, the idea that the Wolves will somehow only improve from their .319 winning percentage last year to .378 this year seems insane, unless the panel of experts is also banking on another rash of injuries, illnesses, and suspensions.
As always, time will tell. But let the record show that this projection is absurd.