Why Wizards passing Thunder in the NBA Lottery would be huge

The Washington Wizards need bigs in the 2022 NBA Draft, well a center specifically. It just so happens that the Minnesota Timberwolves rival, the Oklahoma City Thunder, does too. How do I know so much about team needs? By checking out Free Agent Forecasts projected team needs for all 30 NBA teams, that’s how.

The order of the 2022 NBA Draft is determined through the NBA lottery, an annual event in which the worst 14 teams of the NBA prior year’s season all have a chance to win the right to select first in the upcoming draft. So where are the chances for each of those 14 teams?

The 2022 NBA Draft Lottery will be held tonight, May 17, 2022, in Chicago and air live at 7:00 pm CT on ESPN.

So what are the teams’ chances in tonight’s lottery? Well, the most important first-round draft pick for the Minnesota Timberwolves is not a lottery pick. The Timberwolves will select the 19th overall player in the 2022 NBA Draft. But for the lottery picks, the chances are:

• Team                                          1st-%    Top 4-%

1. Houston Rockets                     14.0%   52.1%
2. Orlando Magic                          14.0%   52.1%
3. Detroit Pistons                         14.0%   52.1%
4. Oklahoma City Thunder         12.5%   48.1%
5. Indiana Pacers                          10.5%   42.1%
6. Portland Trail Blazers                9.0%   37.2%
7. Sacramento Kings                      7.5%   32.0%
8. New Orleans Pelicans                6.0%  26.3%
9. San Antonio Spurs                      4.5%   20.3%
10. Washington Wizards                  3.0%   13.9%
11. New York Knicks                           2.0%     9.4%
12. Oklahoma City Thunder             1.5%     7.1%
13. Charlotte Hornets                        1.0%     4.8%
14. Cleveland Cavaliers                      0.5%     2.4%

Due to the fact that the Thunder have two lottery picks, the combined probability of the Top pick is 15.5 percent, the best chances of any team in the NBA. The chance for a Top Four pick is 55.2 percent, again, the best chances of any team in the NBA.

But best chances do not equate to a sure thing. And so, we are stirring up a Timberwolves hex on the Thunder, and the Trail Blazers too for that matter, in this lottery. Ideally, if the Washington Wizards win the lottery, (well, any team for that matter), they will most likely select Gonzaga C/PF Chet Holmgren.

But if the Wizards leapfrog everyone, then the most likely scenario is Holmgren to the Wizards, Jabari Smith to the Houston Rockets, and then Paolo Banchero to the Orlando Magic. That will compel both the Thunder and Trail Blazers to seriously consider drafting a player in the backcourt, where their rosters are stronger.