How many games would a Minnesota-native only team win?

The Bench

Back-up point guard Tre Jones contributed 2.9 wins to the San Antonio Spurs last season, with a 15.6 percent usage rate in 16.6 minutes.  Back-up power forward Jericho Sims contributed 1.5 wins to the New York Knicks last season, with a 6.9 percent usage rate in 13.5 minutes played.

Back-up point guards Tyrell Terry and McKinnley Wright IV, back-up shooting guard Ade Murkey, and back-up power forward Freddie Gillespie combined for a total of 17 games played last season and 0.1 wins contributed. So, we will leave these spots open for the rookies. As of now, the team needs a backup shooting guard, small forward, and center.

So far, the bench has contributed 4.4 wins. There are now 10.2 minutes remaining at point guard, and 17.5 at power forward. The rest of the positions remain the same.

The Rookies

Out of the six rookies, three were drafted and three were signed after the draft.  Chet Holmgren went at pick three to the Thunder, David Roddy at pick 23 to the Philadelphia 76ers, and Kendall Brown at pick 48, then traded to the Indiana Pacers. The three signed after the draft were Theo John, Payton Willis, and Both Gach. With three bench spots open, Holmgren, Roddy, and Brown will have to be thrown right in.

Although the win shares will not transfer from college to the pros, we can assume it will be fewer wins than what is added up here.  We will make it simple and say the NBA is twice as hard, so we will cut the win shares in half.  I’m open to someone showing me elaborate math in the comments on how this would transfer.

Filling in as the backup shooting guard is David Roddy who contributed 6.3 wins to Colorado State last season, with a 28.8  percent usage rate in 32.9 minutes. Back up small forward Kendall Brown contributed 4.0 wins to Baylor last season, with a 17.1 percent usage rate in 27 minutes. Back-up center Chet Holmgren contributed 6.3 wins to Gonzaga last season, with a 21.6 percent usage rate in 26.9 minutes.

The rookies contribute 16.6 collegiate wins to the team so far. There are now 10.2 minutes left at point guard, those minutes will head over to Suggs, and in turn, 10.2 shooting guard minutes will convert to Roddy, keeping him close to his college minutes at 31. Brown takes up the remaining small forward minutes, keeping him near his college time with 25.3 minutes. The power forward spot has 17.5 minutes left over, and the center position has 7.3 minutes left over with Holmgren taking 26.9.

With 24.8 big man minutes remaining, we split those with Theo John and Freddie Gillepsie. John averaged 11.3 minutes per game at Duke, and Gillepsie averaged 13.2 with the Magic. Together that is 24.5 minutes. John contributed 1.7 wins to Duke last season.

The bench usage rate is 90 percent. So both units have a small amount of leeway for someone to step up.