One tweak to Timberwolves trade for Rudy Gobert would change everything

The Minnesota Timberwolves were one NBA team that pulled off a blockbuster trade in the offseason, a trade so lofty that the price of all other NBA All-Stars who had expressed interest in being traded to new teams, and who had generated meaningful trade talks among multiple NBA team with that express purpose as the topic, immediately ground to a hard halt.

But other NBA blockbuster trades had been negotiated in the past and did not seem to be so costly or crippling to a team’s future as the final negotiated price for Utah Jazz All-Star center Rudy Gobert.  One such trade that springs to mind is that of the Houston Rockets trading multiple players and picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder for their star shooting guard, James Harden.

The Thunder received multiple players and picks for Harden, including two 2013 first-round picks (from Dallas and Toronto (Protected)) as well as a 2013 second-round pick (via Charlotte). So what is this mystery ‘tweak,’ I mentioned that would change everything?

The Rockets did not mortgage their future in the trade. Instead, the Houston Rockets pre-planned for a blockbuster acquisition, and conducted their business to accumulate assets in such a way that when a true game-changing player became available, the team held the most liquid assets (trade picks) to knock the Thunders’ socks off with their offer.

Separating risk and reward was a mistake

When the Minnesota Timberwolves went all-in to acquire Rudy Gobert, they traded their own allotment of first-round picks, four to be exact, over the span of the next seven seasons. And that may have been a major blunder for the Timberwolves. Here’s why:

Risk and rewards should never be separated. In the Rockets’ trade for Harden, as mentioned above, they retained their own draft picks. Why is that significant? Well, if all worked out, great! The Rockets improve dramatically. But if the deal bombed and the Rockets did not work out with James Harden, they would retain their own picks which would enable them to reload and try again.

The greatest concern right now with the Timberwolves trade is that there is no safety net. If the Rudy Gobert – Karl-Anthony Towns experiment fails, it is the Utah Jazz, and not the Minnesota Timberwolves, who will reap the benefits. That will create a vicious cycle for the Timberwolves to struggle to improve, and all the while the Jazz will continue to reap dividends for years to come. So how might the Timberwolves have avoided this pitfall?

One simple tweak changes everything

Easily enough. Simply delayed the trade for one season, and use the interim time to accumulate draft picks for a trade proposal the following season. We know that the Timberwolves entered the 2022 NBA Draft with a significant number of draft picks. Rather than sell picks, the Timberwolves had the chance to trade 2022 draft picks for those in 2023 or beyond.

Likewise, the Timberwolves traded away five players to make the math work for Gobert. Instead, the Timberwolves could have traded away some of those players for future draft picks. Could Malik Beasley or Jarred Vanderbilt have landed a future first-rounder? I think so, yes. Rather than trading away future picks, the Timberwolves had the opportunity to sign a free agent or two or three to backfill the void in the roster for players traded for picks, and then just sat back and observed where the team needed to improve in the 2023 off-season.

What about the concept of Twin City Twin Towers? When the idea was first reported, we talked at length about the idea, as well as assembled a list of 10 NBA free agent centers who could have trialed the idea for the Timberwolves to test its plausibility. That would have allowed the team to amass the necessary trade assets as well as get a much better handle on what this team truly needed.

Measure twice, and cut once. Unfortunately, the Timberwolves were so eager to make a splash, they failed to test the temperature of the water. Or learn how to swim . . .