Minnesota Timberwolves troubles leads to Utah’s euphoria
By Bret Stuter
The hope and belief of the Minnesota Timberwolves executives in the 2022 offseason had to be along the lines of ‘Get Rudy Gobert equals winning plenty of games.’ Unfortunately, the 2022-23 NBA season has not exactly followed that script. It’s not as though the Minnesota Timberwolves have squandered their season. But having flirted with realizing their goals, only to land at a record of 40-40 with two games remaining in their season, this is not the way that the Timberwolves brass had foreseen the season.
Even after a dramatic win on the road against the very potent Brooklyn Nets restored the team to a .500 record, the Minnesota Timberwolves remain among the teams who currently project to participate in the annual NBA Lottery.
In any normal scenario, that would be the best of both worlds. Not only do the Timberwolves have an outside shot of competing in the NBA Playoffs, but they have the faintest chance, a one percent chance, of claiming the top pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. Well, their pick does at least. You see, the cost of doing business in the NBA means surrendering something of value to get something of value.
Jazzing up the NBA Lottery for Utah
In exchange for Gobert, the Utah Jazz own the first-round draft picks of the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029 (Top-3 protected). That means that any NBA Lottery good fortune that falls to that first-round pick originally owned by the Minnesota Timberwolves will benefit the Utah Jazz.
As it now stands as of May 5, 2023, the Timberwolves pick has a one percent chance of claiming the Top overall draft pick of the 2023 NBA Draft. Perhaps more importantly, the same pick has a 4.8 percent chance of landing among the Top-4 of the 2023 NBA Draft. While that is nowhere good enough odds to fret, it does add to the odds for the Utah Jazz of ending in an enviable spot. Here’s why:
- Team Odds of Top Pick Odds of Top 3 Pick
Jazz 4.5 percent 20.3 percent
Timberwolves 1.0 percent 4.8 percent
Total Odds 5.5 percent 25.1 percent
As you can see, the Utah Jazz’s odds benefit directly from the Timberwolves’ pick to the tune of ending up better than a one-in-20 chance of claiming the Top pick, and a one-in-four chance of landing a Top-4 pick, up from one-in-five.
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Play hard for Play Ins and Playoffs
If the Timberwolves win their remaining two games, that will likely take them out of the NBA Lottery, and the Utah Jazz’s odds of hitting in the lottery will decrease significantly. The Timberwolves face the San Antonio Spurs and the New Orleans Pelicans to close out the season. Curiously, both teams could benefit in their NBA Lottery odds with a loss to the Timberwolves.
But as we know, the Timberwolves struggle against struggling teams. If the Timberwolves end the season at 42-40, they have a shot at competing in the NBA Playoffs for the second consecutive season.
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The Timberwolves have been quite frustrating this season. Even as the team has shown the ability to take down very good teams, they have rolled over and played dead for not-very-good teams. There are too beatable teams that stand between the Timberwolves and a 42-40 record that should ensure a solid shot at the postseason competition. You can bet that the Utah Jazz fans are rooting against the Timberwolves in these final two games.