Which playoff seed should Timberwolves fans hope for?

In less than 48 hours, the 2022-23 NBA regular season will be complete and the Minnesota Timberwolves will know exactly where they stand headed into the postseason. After a season of confusing results and an unbelievably close race in the Western Conference, Wolves fans will be relieved to know what the team’s fate is.

There are still many factors at play, so Minnesota will not know their playoff or play-in opponent until the eleventh hour. But the good news is that they have avoided missing out on the play-in entirely.

The Dallas Mavericks were officially eliminated from playoff contention on Friday evening, allowing the Oklahoma City Thunder to clinch the 10th seed. With OKC unable to catch Minnesota in the standings, the Timberwolves will end up somewhere between sixth and ninth in the West. Let’s look at the various scenarios that can unfold between today and tomorrow.

NBA Playoff scenarios for the Minnesota Timberwolves:

No. 6 seed

• Amazingly, the six seed is still in play for the Wolves. For them to jump up to sixth, they will need to go 2-0 in their remaining games and beat the Spurs and Pelicans. From there, they will need a lot of additional help from the teams around them. Since a win over New Orleans would give Minnesota the tiebreaker over the Pels, the Timberwolves would then need the Trail Blazers to beat the Clippers on Saturday and the Jazz to defeat the Lakers on Sunday. From there, a Suns win over the Clippers on Sunday would seal Minnesota’s bid for the number six seed.

No. 7 seed

• For the Wolves to earn the highest spot in the play-in at seventh, they still must win both of their remaining games. Losing Sunday to the Pelicans automatically puts New Orleans higher than Minnesota in the final standings. If the Timberwolves finish 2-0, there are multiple scenarios where they can tie with the Clippers and Lakers and end up jumping both.

No. 8 seed

• Believe it or not, there are actually more scenarios where the Timberwolves finish seventh than where they end up eighth. This is largely due to the tiebreakers that Minnesota holds over the Lakers and Clippers. Simply put, out of the dozens of possible finishes remaining, there is a greater chance that Minnesota will jump multiple teams instead of just one.

No. 9 seed

• Mathematically speaking, this remains the most likely outcome for the Timberwolves. A loss Saturday to San Antonio or Sunday to New Orleans puts Minnesota here by default. If they win game 81 and 82, it will be impossible for the Wolves to finish ninth.

Which seed should Timberwolves fans want?

For the Timberwolves players and coaches, it is hard to think there will be any strategy other than play to win today and tomorrow. The fact that there are so many games occurring simultaneously on Sunday will make it much more difficult for teams to play strategically and pick their desired playoff opponent.

Grabbing the six seed may be the most desired outcome. This would ensure a matchup with the Sacramento Kings, who have not been to the playoffs since 2006 and are sorely lacking in experience. However, that scenario is relatively far-fetched with the Wolves more likely to land in the play-in.

Earning the seven or nine seed would grant Minnesota home court in a play-in game, but the Wolves have struggled mightily at Target Center over the last several weeks. They may be best served playing with the eight seed where they would be on the road, and would still only need one win to clinch a playoff berth.