After the Minnesota Timberwolves failed to advance in Round 1 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs against the NBA Western Conference top seed, the Denver Nuggets, the trolls and NBA pundits who had a year’s worth of vitriol had a field day ridiculing the Timberwolves team. This was a Timberwolves team that dared to dream bigger, and in so doing rolled the dice on trading four draft picks and five players to the Utah Jazz for center Rudy Gobert.
That blockbuster trade that acquired Gobert sent C Walker Kessler Jr., SG Malik Beasley, PF Jarred Vanderbilt, PG Patrick Beverley, and SF Leandro Bolmaro. Since that trade, the Jazz has kept just Walker Kessler Jr, opting to release Bolmaro from their roster outright, and trading Beverley to the Los Angeles Lakers in one trade, then following up with a second trade that sent Vanderbilt and Beasley to the Lakers at the NBA Trade Deadline.
So, the result is a center for a center and some picks.
Timberwolves trade extended NBA Playoffs streak
While the Minnesota Timberwolves trade did not translate into this team advancing to Round 2 or beyond of the NBA Playoffs, how many have considered the fact that the team may not have earned a berth in the NBA Playoffs without that trade in the first place? After all, it was not just the trade that altered this Timberwolves roster, but the subsequent free agents who were added to round out the roster.
The Timberwolves had to create room for some of the younger players to grow, and a bit of pruning on the roster, removing some of the players who were competing for minutes, was perfectly timed. It was that void that allowed both shooting guard Anthony Edwards and small forward Jaden McDaniels to spread their wings and grow significantly this season. But it was also the presence of veteran Rudy Gobert who helped to mentor McDaniels, Edwards, and even backup centers Naz Reid and Luka Garza, in upping their defensive game.
To improve the entire Timberwolves roster, the team needed to enhance the level of play at one position to raise the bar for everyone. Now, with the 2022-23 NBA season in the history books, what should the Timberwolves take away to apply to do a better job in the 2023-24 NBA season? We have 4 such mistakes that this team must avoid making this summer. Such as? Read on . . .
Mistake IV: Ignoring perimeter shooting
While the Minnesota Timberwolves 2022-23 NBA season did not jump out of the gates, early season injuries were only part of the problem. Of course, we could simply point to the fact that only shooting guard Anthony Edwards and small forward Jaden McDaniels suited up for more than 85 percent of the Timberwolves’ 82 scheduled games in the 2022-23 NBA season. That translates into 71+ games, and only two of the team’s 17 available players met that threshold.
But the other problem that plagued the team was the inability to score from beyond the perimeter. While the team’s three-point scoring improved dramatically over the course of the season, there was a huge void in hitting with long-range artillery early in the season.
It was not as though the team did not try to add perimeter shooting. In fact, the addition of veteran power forward Kyle Anderson, shooting guard Austin Rivers, and shooting guard Bryn Forbes was intended to jumpstart the team’s ability to score from long range until the Timberwolves’ full roster could get comfortable and score from beyond the arc.
Where are the sharpshooters on the Timberwolves roster?
Unfortunately, only Kyle Anderson was able to shoot better than his career average of 34.5 percent by hitting a phenomenal 41.0 percent of his three-point shots.
Veteran Austin Rivers was only as good as his career average of 34.9 percent by scoring 35.0 percent of his three-point attempts with the Timberwolves through the 2022-23 NBA season. Veteran shooting guard Bryn Forbes could not muster even his career average, putting up just 30.4 percent of his three-point shots into the basket, against a career average of 41.0 percent.
The Timberwolves cannot open the 2023-24 season hoping for players to find an ability to score from long range. To win, earn a better seeding for the NBA Playoffs, and advance beyond Round 1 of the 2024 NBA Playoffs, the Minnesota Timberwolves will need to ensure that this team has the ability to score with the long ball. That may be as simple as bringing back the right players, or a bit more complicated as identifying new players who fit this team. However the Timberwolves’ front office gets the job done, this team cannot start another NBA season without the ability to pump in points from beyond the arc.
Mistake III: Not getting three extensions done lickety-split
The Minnesota Timberwolves may be in a tough spot financially, but the consensus among most NBA experts is that this team is struggling with an incredible problem. That problem? This Minnesota Timberwolves roster has three of the brightest NBA stars and the team must figure out ways to keep them all on the roster.
The first and perhaps the most difficult extension to ink is that of backup center Naz Reid. That does not spring from a Timberwolves team that is set on trying to lowball the guy, but rather Naz Reid’s expectation for a larger, and perhaps even a starting, role as an NBA center for the 2023-24 NBA season. While he has certainly done enough to warrant consideration, there are solid reasons for him to consider staying with the Timberwolves.
Reid did not compete in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, and that will certainly drive down his value and opportunity to start next season for any team. Added to that is the fact that big men are a bit more plentiful in the NBA right now. It would make more sense for Naz Reid to come back, if only for one more season, to the Minnesota Timberwolves and confirm that he is ready for the next step.
McDefense and Ant-Man
Jaden McDaniels is an NBA defensive force to be reckoned with. He too is a young NBA star who was unable to compete for the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2023 NBA Playoffs due to an untimely injury. While that should not hurt his long-term career, it did derail the Timberwolves’ chances of pulling off an upset in Round 1, and that could play a part in the eventual contract terms that extend McDaniels with the Timberwolves for the foreseeable future.
McDaniels is certainly a player who ranks quite highly on the Timberwolves’ offseason priorities, but you have to wonder how he will perform as expectations increase. A deal will get done, but at what cost? The Timberwolves have a narrow path to success on this one, as money spent to keep McDaniels is money that cannot be spent elsewhere. Unlike fans’ perceptions, once negotiated, contracts cannot suddenly redirect compensation to the hot hand in a game or even a month during the regular season.
Of course, the top contract extension on the Timberwolves’ Totem pole is to re-sign Anthony Edwards and lock him in for the foreseeable future. There is no question from anyone over whether he deserves it, or how much he should be making. The Timberwolves want to throw the biggest stack of benjamins at their star shooting guard possible. But when it comes to contract terms, that is where and when it gets a bit tricky.
I won’t pretend to recite the rules of NBA compensation, but I do know that the money spent on a player can result in huge swings to a salary cap depending on how the eventual contract is structured. For example, a $40 million salary in the 2023-24 NBA season on a four-year contract equates to a $40 million hit to the team’s annual salary cap. But a $40 million signing bonus on a four-year contract is only a $10 million hit to the salary cap, as the other money is spread evenly over the other three years.
Mistake II: Failing to re-sign Luka Garza or Nickeil Alexander-Walker
The Minnesota Timberwolves front office has a lot on its plate this offseason, and you can expect that to be the case for quite some time. Even as the Timberwolves roster was assembled for the 2022-23 NBA season, the availability of so few players has left a bit of guesswork over the overall chemistry of the team, and of the players needed on this team. Two young players who truly showed above-expected production and grit are shooting guard/small forward Nickeil Alexander-Walker and center Luka Garza.
While center Luka Garza was not signed to a standard NBA contract to close out the 2022-23 NBA season, and compete in the 2023 NBA Playoffs for the Minnesota Timberwolves, there are plenty of reasons why he should be re-signed to the team for the 2023-24 NBA season. For starters, Garza split his time between the Minnesota Timberwolves and their G-League affiliate, the Iowa Wolves. Even with that commute, he logged in 28 games for the Timberwolves, averaging 8.7 minutes and 6.5 points per game.
Extend the pair that exceeded expectations
Garza was the guy that the Timberwolves leaned on when both Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert were unable to suit up and his enthusiastic and passionate play as he competed with next to no advance warning was very impressive. Over the course of extending the big names on the Timberwolves roster, the front office cannot overlook the need to retain those younger players who surpassed expectations as well.
Shooting guard/small forward Nickeil Alexander-Walker arrives as almost an afterthought during the NBA Trade Deadline exchange that sent PG D’Angelo Russell to the Los Angeles Lakers and acquired PG Mike Conley Jr. from the Utah Jazz, as well as three future second-round picks. Initially, NAW was viewed as a pawn in the trade to help balance out the salaries between the three teams.
It quickly became apparent that Minnesota Timberwolves President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly saw the potential for Alexander-Walker to fill a 3-and-D role for the Timberwolves. A 3-and-D player is a wing player, a shooting guard, or a small forward, who has an uncanny ability to play above average defense or the “D”, as well as score effectively from the perimeter, or the “3.”
NAW performed so well in that role that he became a starter in four of five games in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs for his defensive abilities. It would be incredibly foolish for the Timberwolves front office to allow either NAW or Garza to play elsewhere next season.
Mistake I: Failing to find a true successor to PG Mike Conley Jr.
While the Minnesota Timberwolves have another season of veteran point guard Mike Conley Jr., the team has to address the matter of his successor this offseason. After all, the truth is that the Timberwolves are a completely different team with a true field general leading this team, and it showed. Now that the Timberwolves have discovered the full benefit of a veteran point guard, this team will need to identify and add his successor at point guard to the team’s roster.
The Timberwolves muddled through most of the 2022-23 NBA season with guard D’Angelo Russell as the designated point guard, and over that period backup point guard Jordan McLaughlin benefited from that comparison. But now, compared to Mike Conley Jr., McLaughlin pales on both offense and defense. And after four seasons in the NBA, that’s not going to cut it for a Timberwolves team that not only wants to compete in the NBA Playoffs but wants to get better each year in the process.
Point to this backup
The Timberwolves projected starting 5 for the 2023-24 NBA season will likely be the same 5 who the team ended the 2022-23 NBA season with. Namely, the Timberwolves will likely go with PG Mike Conley Jr., SG Anthony Edwards, SF Jaden McDaniels, PF Karl-Anthony Towns, and C Rudy Gobert. Behind them, the Timberwolves likely have C Naz Reid and Luka Garza, PF Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince, SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG Jaylen Nowell, and Wendell Moore Jr. But who slides in at point guard?
That is what the Timberwolves must figure out this offseason.
While it would be ideal to know who will fill that role out of the gates, the Timberwolves can add two young prospects and toggle between the pair until one stands out over the other. Of course, the Timberwolves could make another exchange for a true future point guard at the NBA Trade Deadline, but that presumes that the right player will be available at the right price.
The Timberwolves should be a far more competitive team this season. But the only way that the team’s risk-taking over trading so much for veteran center Rudy Gobert pays off is for the team to find ways to upgrade their roster each offseason.
Four mistakes that the Minnesota Timberwolves must avoid this summer. And for my part, I believe that they can. After all, we’ll all be watching them every step of the way.