When will the Minnesota Timberwolves extend Jaden McDaniels?

Whenever Minnesota Timberwolves small forward Jaden McDaniels steps onto the basketball court, expectations for elite NBA defense skyrocket. And thankfully, those expectations are met with one of the best defensive performances in all of professional basketball. How good is it? Well, to be honest, don’t take my word for it.

The proof is in the pudding, and that means we have to take a crack at NBA statistics. Thankfully, we have those readily available in a recent article about how well the Minnesota Timberwolves have defended Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James in the past two seasons. And so, let’s simply revisit those same statistical presentations once more:

Impressive stuff, right?

McDaniels is Micky D

Who’s responsible? Well, you have Timberwolves Jaden McDaniels to thank.  That’s a lot of oomph coming from the 22-year-old TImberwolves small forward. The best news is that McDaniels is just getting warmed up.

Entering just his fourth NBA season, McDaniels has shown rapid development and has confirmed all of the trust and expectations placed on him by the Minnesota Timberwolves. His minutes played per game, as well as the number of games that he has started, have increased dramatically since his rookie season.

The challenge right now is, how high can Jaden McDaniels skyrocket in the NBA in the future? That is where it all becomes quite tricky, complex, and entangled.  How so? Well, let’s discuss that on the next slide.

Optimism, overpay, and the high-wire balancing act

We know that the Minnesota Timberwolves have had plenty of seriously pressure-packed opportunities to off-load forward Jaden McDaniels for the past 18 months. In fact, when the Minnesota Timberwolves front office engages in any trade conversations, the first player named by a prospective trade partner is Jaden McDaniels.

So far, the Timberwolves have insisted in no uncertain terms that Jaden McDaniels is not available, for any price. That is simply due to the level of respect and appreciation that the Timberwolves’ entire organization has for the young man. In fact, the team is so high on the young man that the team created a web page to lobby for McDaniels to make the NBA All-Defense team. That is a whole lot of support.

McDaniels has a strong reputation for playing NBA elite defense.

Assessing the value of  a player blessed with an NBA elite defense

But now comes the difficult part. While McDaniels was not selected for the 2023 NBA All-Defense team, you can bet that he and his agent will be looking for a contract with compensation that looks remarkably similar to a player who was so named. After all, it is far too easy for them to point to the Minnesota Timberwolves’ own webpage to justify the high-end of any compensation package as the starting point.

But before we start clamoring for the Timberwolves front office to simply agree to pay McDaniels as much as he may wish, keep in mind that whatever funds are stuffed into Mcdaniels’ pockets today must come from the pockets of other players tomorrow. What I mean is that a multi-year contract signed by Jaden McDaniels today will overlap the 2024 and 2025 NBA Free Agency market. And the Timberwolves cannot pay future players with money that is already spent.

See the dilemma?

Who is keeping the score?

Even as we can debate the defensive prowess of young small forward Jaden McDaniels’ worthiness of an NBA All-Defense team honors, we have to pivot to the offensive side of the basketball court. After all, scoring is as important to the game of professional basketball as his defense. So what about his offense? Can he put puts up on the scoreboard?

While not much is headlined over McDaniels ability to put up points, that has certainly been an area of steady and rapid development and improvement. For example, did you know that Jaden Mcdaniels’ perimeter shot was successful nearly 40 percent of the time during the 2022-23 NBA season? (He was a 39.8 percent scorer from beyond the arc). That is some ironclad dependability.

More than a long-range scorer

But he has more in his arsenal than just long-range artillery:

McDaniels was able to deliver points when the Timberwolves needed them. Perhaps seeing is believing:

Jaden McDaniels has certainly been a valuable player on the Timberwolves roster so far.  So what is the holdup? Well, for starters, McDaniels punched a wall, broke his hand, and removed himself from competing in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. That was a foolish and immature decision that does not help his case in negotiating this year.

But he missed a postseason. That’s huge, in that competing in the NBA Playoffs truly defines elite, very good, or just good NBA players. Without that demonstration, McDaniels will be limited to just the 2022 NBA playoff performance.

Unlike max deals that are fairly well-defined, the value of an NBA non-max deal is completely open to negotiation. In short, McDaniels will be paid whatever he and the Minnesota Timberwolves agree.

What is the likely value of the Timberwolves extension for McDaniels?

Okay, now that we have the stats, let’s try to assign some dollars to the extension. Where do we start? Well, that topic was discussed at length by Minnesota Timberwolves beat writer Darren Wolfson.  Now keep in mind that this discussion occurred in May 2023, before many significant signings and the revision of the 2023-24 NBA salary cap was reported:

While Darren Wolfson did a great job on the topic, this one is quite vital. Is it too skeptical to seek confirmation? Well, whenever I need the latest and greatest Timberwolves salary cap data, I often turn to Timberwolves data guru and capologist, Dane Moore.  Here is where Moore values McDaniels’ contract extension:

Per Dane Moore’s estimation, McDaniels’ extension will come in at or about five years and $140 million. That works out to approximately $28 million APY but puts pressure on the Timberwolves during the 2024 off-season.

Based on Moore’s spreadsheet, the Minnesota Timberwolves will fall beyond both the 2024 NBA Salary Cap and the 2024 NBA Luxury Tax thresholds. Is that something that the team is prepared to work with? I don’t have the answer at this point in time, but I can say that could be one of the reasons for any delay.

Whatever the Timberwolves decide, the team will likely need to act at either the 2024 NBA Trade Deadline or the 2024 NBA off-season to rebalance the roster to fit under the salary cap going forward. Until then, we wait. Stay tuned . . .