The number of games that the Minnesota Timberwolves have gotten from star center/power forward Karl-Antony Towns is a fickle thing. In some seasons, he had played nearly the entire 82-game schedule. But more often than we’d care to admit, he has been injured and watching from the bench. That’s a problem for a team that depends on his ability to score.
Now that the Minnesota Timberwolves schedule has been released for the 2023-24 NBA season, you would not be wrong to ask yourself just how many games will KAT play. After all, he was an iron man of sorts in his first three years in the NBA, never missing a single game.
But as time wore on, and the Timberwolves’ fortunes did not improve for more than a season, Towns has not been the same. His durability has waned over time, culminating in the 2022-23 NBA season when he was only able to suit up and compete for a mere 35 percent of the season.
That’s not going to cut it, folks.
Let’s step back a moment and project what the chances are for the Minnesota Timberwolves to make the playoffs based on the durability of Karl-Anthony Towns this season:
0-20 games
If Karl-Anthony Towns falls into this category for the 2023-24 NBA season, not only will the Timberwolves be eager to trade him away, but no NBA team will be willing to offer much of anything for the versatile veteran.
Another disappointing season from Towns that is limited due to injury would not only be frustrating to the Minnesota Timberwolves, but it would cripple the Timberwolves’ roster. The Timberwolves cannot afford to spend so much money on a player who is not playing. In the end, Towns has got to be involved and earn those hefty paychecks.
If he cannot muster playing more than 20 games this season, the Timberwolves could very likely end up missing the 2024 NBA Playoffs altogether.
21-40 games
While this is the range of games that the Timberwolves were able to get from Karl-Anthony Towns in the 2022-23 NBA season, a repeat will all but destroy his trade value. After all, the most valuable ability in any professional athlete’s career is availability followed closely by durability. Right now, both characteristics are being questioned extensively about Karl-Anthony Towns.
At 21-40 games, this Timberwolves roster is going to lean oh-so heavily upon backup forward Kyle Anderson, just as the team did so often in the 2022-23 NBA season. That is not necessarily the worst-case scenario, as the Timberwolves developed a great deal of chemistry with Anderson in the starting line-up.
While Slo-Mo cannot match KAT’s scoring prowess, he does bring plenty of other attributes that help the team. For starters, his 4.9 assists per game was the third-best mark for the Timberwolves last season. Pair that with his 41.0 percent shooting from the perimeter, and suddenly the picture of just how effective Slo-Mo can be on the basketball court comes into focus.
Still, at 21-40 games out of Towns, the Timberwolves are likely destined to compete in the NBA Play-In Tournament at the end of the 2023-24 NBA season once more.
41-60 games
The Timberwolves hope that KAT can play a minimum of 41+ games this season. If that happens, several positive events can take place. For starters, the Minnesota Timberwolves will not be scrambling to fill in the frontcourt should center Rudy Gobert need a rest day to nurse nagging minor injuries. And the Timberwolves can play it smart, rotating Towns and Gobert in different games to ensure that the team has at least one All-Star center starting.
Perhaps more importantly, the Timberwolves roster will not be forced to run on fumes. That led to the team letting up when a less-than-successful opponent appeared on the team’s schedule. Ironically, it was the Timberwolves’ struggles against struggling teams last season that kept the team stuck at or around .500.
But as Karl-Anthony Towns’ availability rises to over 50 percent of the scheduled games in the 2023-24 NBA season, the team’s rate of winning games escalates rapidly. Karl-Anthony Towns averages more than 20 points per game, even when he is struggling. If he suits up and plays more than half of the games this season, it’s reasonable to expect him to put up 23+ points per game.
At that level, the Timberwolves are likely looking at 43-47 wins.
60-70 games
If the Timberwolves get from 60 to 70 games out of Karl-Anthony Towns in the 2023-24 NBA season, the team has a solid chance of earning a respectable seeding in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Of course, there are no guarantees in the NBA, but one of the keystones to the Timberwolves’ current roster is Towns.
Even as the Minnesota Timberwolves pivot to focus on All-Star shooting guard Anthony Edwards, the Timberwolves roster will continue to need a wingman. Karl-Anthony Towns is the ideal complement to Edwards’s hard-charging drives to the basket. Because Towns’ offense is so versatile and diverse, he can set up as a marksman from the perimeter, he can drive to the basket to draw defenders, and then pass out to Gobert or a trailing Edwards, or he can simply do his damage by creating his own shots.
Timberwolves fans have not had the benefit of seeing just how dominating this roster can be with a full season of Towns, Gobert, and Edwards at full strength. But don’t believe all of the narratives that mandate the Wolves need to break up the roster before fans ever get to see what they can do.
If KAT can play up to 70 games this season, the Timberwolves have a strong likelihood of winning 45-50 games.
71-82 games
If Karl-Anthony Towns can suit up and play 71+ games for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season, 50 or more wins are certainly within reach. This is the ideal scenario and one that would result in plenty of positives happening at Target Center.
KAT is easily overlooked as one of the best players in the NBA. Because he played only 29 games last season and had a season that was only a runner-up to his rookie season in terms of disappointing performance, the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately crowd has already judged him as unworthy of continuing to play for the Timberwolves.
But even with a disappointing season, he put up 20.8 points per game, hit on 36.6 percent of his perimeter shots, hauled in 8.1 rebounds per game, tossed out 4.8 assists, snatched 0.7 steals, and rejected 0.6 blocks per game. Those are not middle-of-the-road numbers for any NBA player, let alone a player who stands 6-foot-11 and weighs 248 pounds.
If he can play 71+ games, the Timberwolves could win 50+ games this season.
The Timberwolves have every reason to believe in their ability to improve in the 2023-24 season. Much of that optimism rests on the ability of Karl-Anthony Towns to stay healthy and play. Can he do so? I would not be so quick to rule him out just yet. After all, he has competed for the Timberwolves for eight NBA seasons. His ninth season with the Timberwolves could be his best yet. Not just from a personal standpoint, but this Timberwolves roster has the stuff to advance in the 2024 NBA Playoffs and make some serious noise.