The Western Conference Finals between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder start on Tuesday. While the Thunder are heavy favorites, Minnesota has a strong chance to pull off an upset and make the NBA Finals. The Timberwolves were 2-2 against OKC in the regular season and have the personnel to match up with them. Let's explore three questions that will sway this series.
How do the Timberwolves match up with the Thunder’s size?
The Timberwolves have an elite and versatile frontcourt. Sure, they have undoubtedly benefited from playing the smaller Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors in the first two rounds. Still, there shouldn't be a doubt among the team that they deserve to be in their current position. It's worth wondering how Minnesota will respond to OKC's double big lineup of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Julius Randle is in the midst of his best career playoff run, averaging 23.9 points.
Nevertheless, it's worth wondering if his impressive play can continue against Chet and I-Hart. Despite being four inches shorter than Holmgren, Randle could have success against him as he weighs 40 pounds more. Conversely, Chet's length and lockdown defense, along with Hartenstein's high-level defense, could limit Randle.
Rudy Gobert will be key in containing Holmgren on the other end of the floor. Naz Reid feels poised to have a big series. He is shooting 46 percent from beyond the arc in the playoffs and averaged 22.5 points against the Thunder in the regular season. Ultimately, Randle, Gobert, and Reid will all be crucial in determining the Timberwolves' success in this series.
How will Anthony Edwards respond to OKC's defense?
The Thunder's top-ranked defense has been crucial to their success all year long. With Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, the Thunder have a plethora of options to throw at Anthony Edwards. OKC's defense specializes in forcing turnovers. They will pressure Edwards and attempt to make him a playmaker.
In the regular season, Edwards struggled against OKC, averaging 22.3 points on 36.4 percent shooting from the field and 3.5 turnovers. Edwards has been one of the league's best playoff performers so far, averaging 26.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 5.9 assists. Ant is a great player and will find other ways to contribute. However, he likely won't have a massive series from a scoring standpoint. As a result, it will be imperative for other players, especially Randle and Reid, to pick up the scoring load.
Will OKC's poor shooting trend continue?
The 3-point battle is always a key part of every playoff series. After shooting 37.4 percent from beyond the arc in the regular season, OKC's 3-point percentage has plummeted to 31.9 percent in the playoffs. SGA (29.3), Dort (28), and Williams (25.4) have all seen significant declines in their 3-point percentages. Notably, the Timberwolves' defense is perfectly equipped for this trend to continue.
According to GeniusIQ, the Timberwolves ran zone defense for 52 possessions against the Thunder, holding them to just 0.81 points per possession. Look for Minnesota's zone defense to be impactful against OKC.
Minnesota's athleticism and length will be disruptive to OKC's shooters. Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will all play vital defensive roles for the Wolves. Overall, if the Thunder's poor shooting continues and the Timberwolves shoot the ball at a solid rate, it could flip the series in Minnesota's favor.