Shaquille O’Neal has brought Rudy Gobert’s name back in the news. Speaking on his podcast, Shaq stated that if Gobert were to get enshrined into the Basketball Hall of Fame, he would wear a dress to the ceremony. That, of course, brought up a debate by fans as to whether or not the current Timberwolves center is in line for a future trip to Springfield. Basketball Reference lists his chances of getting in as comically low.
Rudy Gobert given slightly better than a one-in-four-chance at the Hall of Fame
Basketball Reference has a Hall of Fame Probability that measures the probability of a player’s chances of getting inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame. The website states how they come to the odds, including saying that “player awards, sustained effectiveness as measured by appearances on leaderboards, and peak dominance (measured as a player's peak Win Shares output), all have explanatory value. Number of championships is a strong predictor, as well, along with the player's height.”
Right now, Basketball Reference lists Gobert’s Hall of Fame chances at just 27.2%. Now, that number may go up with future production, but it also seems way too low at the moment for a player of Gobert’s stature.
Accolades and stats show his odds should be substantially better
There have been three four-time Defensive Player of the Year winners. Gobert is one, and the other two, Ben Wallace and Dikembe Mutombo, have already been enshrined in the Hall. Unlike those two, Gobert has averaged double figures in scoring for his career.
Gobert's teams have made the playoffs in nine straight years. In five of them, they advanced past at least one round, and his Wolves have reached the Western Conference finals in the last two.
‘The Stifle Tower’ has made eight All-Defensive teams, the first seven of which he was named to the first team. The 7-foot-1 center has averaged a double-double in points and rebounds in each of the last nine seasons. Gobert is 45th in career rebounds with 9,700 and 30th in career blocks with 1,718.
Take a look at the back of his basketball card, and it features plenty of bold ink. Gobert had led the league in field goal percentage three times, rebounding once, and blocks once. His 67.3 true shooting percentage is the highest in league history.
The Basketball Hall of Fame has often been said to be the easiest of the major sports to get into. Saying Gobert has just slightly better than a one-in-four chance seems absurd, and it feels like a given at this point that he will get in soon after he decides to retire.