Complete Western Conference tier list: Where do the Timberwolves stack up?

The Minnesota Timberwolves had one of the most active offseasons by trading for LaMelo Ball. Minnesota is hoping that by upgrading its playmaking and perimeter scoring, it can level up in a loaded Western Conference. In recent years, the Timberwolves have had plenty of success, but they are still waiting to make a championship leap. 

Let's put the conference into perspective by tiering out every team and determining where the Timberwolves stack up and how they match up with everyone else.

Note that the teams listed in each tier are in order from best to worst.

Tier 1: The absolute juggernauts: Spurs and Thunder 

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are the biggest threats to the Timberwolves in the West. Both teams won over 60 games last year and are young enough to sustain success for the foreseeable future. 

I gave the Spurs the slight edge as the defending conference champs, and since OKC cut into its depth a bit. Furthermore, the Spurs upgraded their power forward position by signing Tobias Harris. Still, both teams are clearly a notch above the Wolves (and the rest of the West) until proven otherwise. 

Everything the Timberwolves do will be judged in the context of catching up to these two teams. Trading for LaMelo was an aggressive move that could help them close the gap. The one million-dollar question is whether the Timberwolves' suddenly strong playmaking and shooting will be enough to offset their lack of frontcourt size.  

I believe the Timberwolves improved their chances against these two teams, as they clearly needed extra shooting and playmaking against these high-pressure defenses, and Ball is a clear talent upgrade.

Regardless, both teams remain undeniable juggernauts, and the Wolves' lack of size could absolutely backfire.  

Tier 2: Clear playoff teams: Timberwolves, Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets 

Just like last season, I'm predicting the Timberwolves will duke it out with the Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, and Houston Rockets for seeds No. 3 through 6. My ranking of the Timberwolves, Lakers, Nuggets, and Rockets is less about regular season placement and more about playoff viability. 

With two conference finals appearances in the past three seasons, the Timberwolves are the most proven playoff commodity out of these teams. While the Wolves' forward depth is a flaw, they upgraded their desperate need for extra playmaking and perimeter scoring alongside Anthony Edwards. Given how much success the Timberwolves have already had with such a key flaw, I'm optimistic that LaMelo can help them separate from these other three teams a bit.

Additionally, I think the Wolves have some clear matchup advantages over the other three teams in this tier (more on that shortly).

Outside of Minnesota, the Lakers are the only team of this bunch that has arguably improved this summer. They've had a divisive offseason in some regards. Even if they paid a hefty price for him, Walker Kessler is a massive boost to their rim protection and overall defense. Plus, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton, Sandro Mamukelashvili, and Matisse Thybulle are all clear fits with Luka Doncic.

I think adding some impactful role players and a high-level starting center is a win, even if they lost LeBron James. Now, with that being said, the Lakers still lack on-ball defenders. In the context of a matchup with the Timberwolves, they still have no answer for Edwards (and now LaMelo). On the flipside, Jaden McDaniels can give Luka fits. As such, I'd give Minnesota an edge. Still, the Lakers' roster is better constructed around their star than the Nuggets' or Rockets' are.

The Timberwolves disposed of the Nuggets in the first-round, exposing their lack of defense and athleticism. Denver has only added Marvin Bagley III thus far. Good luck improving.

With elite defenders in McDaniels and Rudy Gobert, along with a team that plays at breakneck speed, the Timberwolves can still cause the Nuggets headaches despite their frontcourt size. Nikola Jokic gives the Nuggets an extremely high regular season floor, but after what we saw in April, Minnesota has no reason to fear this team in the playoffs.

One could argue that the Rockets are the toughest matchup for the Timberwolves thanks to their frontcourt size, and their on-paper talent is clear. I don't care. Houston, who ranked 25th in 3-pointers made last year, can't keep up with high-powered offenses, including Minnesota's. The non-spacing duo of Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson is easily exploitable. The Lakers did so while staying afloat on offense without Luka and Austin Reaves (for four games) in the first-round and this problem led to frequent late-game collapses throughout the season.

Overall, Houston has glaring roster flaws that keep them at the bottom of this tier for me despite their size and on-paper talent. 

The theme with all of these teams is that they are talented yet somewhat flawed teams with a puncher's chance to make a deep playoff run.

Tier 3: Frisky playoff teams: Jazz and Suns 

I believe that the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns will round out the playoff picture in the West. Depending on injuries and other factors, one of these teams could snag a top-six seed, which could set up a first-round matchup with the Wolves.

After years of being an easy regular season, the division rival Jazz are ready to climb out of the cellar. Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. could pose some challenges to the Wolves' frontcourt. Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson have the potential to be a dynamic young backcourt. This combination could make the Jazz a difficult matchup for any team on a nightly basis. 

The Suns filled their need for a power forward by trading for Miles Bridges. They also replaced Grayson Allen with Luke Kennard. I can't say they got significantly better, but another playoff appearance feels like it should be in the cards. And who knows, maybe the duo of Devin Booker and Jalen Green could take some strides in a full year together. 

Both of these teams are solid squads that nobody should be eager to play against. All the same, I don't view them as anything more than a tough out in the postseason, and there's a shot for either team to fall out of the playoffs.

Tier 4: Play-In hopefuls: Trail Blazers, Clippers, Warriors, Grizzlies, and Mavericks

Now, we move ahead to teams I'm projecting to miss the playoffs, but could have a chance via the Play-In Tournament.

There's inherently less to note regarding the Timberwolves. However, I find it worth mentioning that I see the Portland Trail Blazers taking a step back since Ja Morant creates a backcourt logjam and they still lack shooting.

Assuming the Los Angeles Clippers Kawhi Leonard-Brandon Ingram trade goes through, they still have enough talent with Ingram and Darius Garland to be somewhat competitive. Stephen Curry single-handedly gives the Golden State Warriors a solid enough floor, and maybe he can get them back to the playoffs, but they lack talent around him. 

The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are likely lottery teams, but they could be surprise upstart teams. A second-year Cooper Flagg and a healthy Kyrie Irving make this a possibility for the Mavericks, while a well-rounded roster could allow the Grizzlies to pick up more wins than expected.

More than anything, this tier demonstrates that the Wolves won't have many (if any) freebies in the regular season.  

Tier 5: I'd be SHOCKED if they aren't in the lottery: Pelicans and Kings 

The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings are the only true dregs of the conference.

Despite not having their pick and four West teams aggressively tanking at the end of the year, the Pelicans won just 26 games this past season. Their roster neglects spacing, defense, and general roster fit.

The Kings won 22 games, and their only major addition was drafting Darius Acuff, who might struggle as a rookie due to his small frame. They somehow still have Zach LaVine and Domantas Sabonis on their roster. Like the Pelicans, they lack shooting, defense, and a sensible roster fit. Given these factors, I'd be shocked if either of these cracks the Play-In Tournament.

These two teams stand out as the weak links of the West. When the Timberwolves play these teams in the regular season, though, they can't play down to their competition. Notably, the Wolves lost to both of these teams last year. 

Regardless, this tier, only including two teams, is a testament to the depth of the West, and this exercise should demonstrate that the Timberwolves have their work cut out for them.  

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