Last June, the Minnesota Timberwolves traded up in the NBA Draft to select Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham with the 8th overall pick. However, in Dillingham's rookie season, he only averaged 10.5 minutes and 4.5 points. Dillingham showed flashes of offensive brilliance as a shot-creator and playmaker. With Mike Conley being 37 and declining as a scorer, many are expecting Dillingham to have a massive role next season. While it's easy to see how Dillingham would impact the Wolves' offense, his defense brings massive questions.
Can Dillingham hold up on defense?
Dillingham is a gifted three-level scorer, he averaged 11.6 points when receiving 20-plus minutes. His ability to attack the rim, shoot from beyond the arc, and set up teammates for open looks is exactly the skill set Minnesota needs. At 6-foot-1, 176 pounds, Dillingham's size and defense are a significant concern. Smaller guards will always be relentlessly targeted, and it's unclear if Dillingham can overcome this, especially since his defense hurt him in college. This is why Dillingham struggled to get consistent minutes as a rookie.
Some smaller guards, such as Fred VanVleet, have made positive impacts defensively. However, VanVleet is 20 pounds heavier than Dillingham, which helps him draw charges, fight through screens, and not be completely overwhelmed by bigger players. Bulking up will be a priority for Dillingham this offseason.
Chris Paul and Mike Conley are two examples of smaller guards who don't weigh much but have made positive defensive impacts throughout their careers. Notably, both guards made All-Defensive teams throughout their careers. Nevertheless, they are physically stronger than Dillingham, even when they were at a similar age. Moreover, they are two of the smartest players to ever play in the league.
Both CP3 and Conley have unmatched positioning. In their primes, they would be able to shut down opposing guards, fight through screens, and rack up steals at a high rate. Playing with Conley should benefit Dillingham and show him a path to making a defensive impact despite his size. Nevertheless, Dillingham will need to find his avenue to make a defensive impact.
Dillingham will undoubtedly get a bigger role with the Wolves next season. However, his defensive development will determine just how significant a role he will play. If the Wolves aren't super confident in his development, they might draft a guard with size like Egor Demin or pursue a free agent like Spencer Dinwiddie. Regardless, Dillingham's offensive upside and the Wolves' elite surrounding defense should give them some level of optimism.