This week, ESPN began posting its NBA Summer Forecast for the 2026–27 season. After its NBA insiders projected the standings for both conferences, its predictions for the most likely teams to win each conference and the NBA Finals were posted on the website the following day.
What is clear from both articles is that the Minnesota Timberwolves are once again expected to be a good team. However, it's also evident that there is projected to be a large gap between the expected top two teams in the Western Conference and them.
That doesn't mean that the Timberwolves will be playing for third at best in the conference, though.
Wolves predicted to finish fifth in the West
ESPN’s projections have the Timberwolves finishing 50–32, good for fifth in the West. That would be one game better than their 49–33 record from last season. Their projected 50 wins also place them just one win behind both the Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets.
Would Minnesota be ahead of those two clubs if Jonathan Kuminga signs with them? The insiders likely have some skepticism when it comes to the Timberwolves' roster due to there not being an obvious starting power forward.
Anyhow, all three of those teams are far behind the top two. The San Antonio Spurs are projected to finish 62–20, with the Oklahoma City Thunder two games behind them at 60–22.
Making the NBA Finals would be a surprise according to projections
The NBA insiders were each asked to give their top three choices to come out of each conference, as well as their pick to win the championship. A first-place vote was worth five points, a second-place vote was worth three, and a third-place vote was worth one.
The Thunder (88 points) and Spurs (74) are in a different stratosphere in the voting to come out of the West. Minnesota finished third with nine points, one more than the Rockets and Nuggets, who are both projected to finish one game better than the Timberwolves during the regular season.
Preseason projections are fun but mostly wrong
Obviously, things can turn out much differently from what is predicted before the season begins. Just look at last year’s Summer Forecast.
The Spurs were projected to finish ninth in the Western Conference and did not even receive a third-place vote to win the conference. The New York Knicks received the fifth-most points to win the title, while the Thunder were head and shoulders above every other team.
Anthony Edwards played in only 61 games last season and dealt with major knee issues in the playoffs. His 21 missed regular-season games were two more than he had missed combined in his first five years. If he can remain in the lineup and is now paired in the backcourt with LaMelo Ball, the Wolves’ ceiling should rise.
Also, in what has been the most successful era in team history, Edwards and his teammates have often overachieved in the playoffs as compared to where they finished in the regular season. So if they were to finish fifth, there's no reason for them to believe they can't make a postseason run.
In 2024, they finished as the third seed in the West and defeated the second-seeded Nuggets in the second round. The following year, they faced the third-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in the opening round and easily disposed of them as a sixth seed. Once again, Minnesota finished sixth last season, and once again took care of the Nuggets in six games in the first round.
It's also known that Tim Connelly is never afraid to make a move at some point up until next year's trade deadline if he believes it will help the club. If it's obvious that the Timberwolves need a power forward, or another clear hole/weakness emerges, Connelly will be working like no other to find a trade partner to fix the area of need.
Preseason predictions can be a fun read, but they are never going to be completely accurate. Yes, the Timberwolves are almost universally seen as being behind the Spurs and Thunder. A lot happens over an 82-game regular season, and postseason upsets can and do occur, so there's no reason for them not to believe their ceiling is a championship in 2026-27.
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