The Minnesota Timberwolves have won a combined 105 games over the last two seasons, culminating in two Western Conference finals appearances. Last season, they won seven fewer games in 2023-24 but still finished with 49. On Tuesday, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton revealed his stats-based win projections for the 2025-26 season. The Timberwolves’ have a win projection of 43.7, which would be a steep decline when compared to the last two years.
Projections seem to completely undervalue the Timberwolves
Pelton described how he came up with his win-based projections for all 30 teams.
"To project teams, I start with player ratings based on a combination of my SCHOENE stats-based projections and luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) provided by Krishna Narsu that covers the past three seasons. For each team, I project games played based on those missed to injury over the past three years and current absences then subjectively guess at the distribution of playing time."
Obviously, Pelton’s model is lower on the Timberwolves than nearly anyone else would be. A projected 43.7 wins gives them a projected loss total of 38.3, a record that isn’t even that far over .500. ESPN BET has the Timberwolves' over/under win total at 49.5.
In the Western Conference, that 43.7 win total is only the eighth-most in the projections. That means Pelton’s model has Minnesota needing to fight through the Play-In Tournament in order to earn a playoff spot. Their win total is about two fewer than the Lakers (45.8), who occupy the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. The other teams ahead of the Timberwolves are the Thunder (59.2), Warriors (56.1), Nuggets (52.2), Clippers (49.7), Rockets (46.9), and Grizzlies (44.6). Minnesota is barely ahead of the ninth and 10th-place teams, the Mavericks (43.6) and the Kings (43.5).
Was way off on Minnesota last season
Pelton’s stats-based projected standings clearly seem to underrate the Timberwolves, and it’s not the first time they have done so. Pelton mentions that last season, his model projected them for just 42.7 wins, more than 6 fewer than they finished with. It seems ridiculous that it was that low, considering they won 56 games in 2023-24. Yes, they made the move late in the offseason to deal Karl-Anthony Towns, but they added two solid pieces back in Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
In the end, it’s nothing for Timberwolves fans to worry about. Pelton may need to further tweak how the projections are formulated if he is once again way off on how Minnesota fares (as well as other teams).