It's been an odd season for Julius Randle. He started the season on a high note, looking like a legitimate All-NBA-level player. Notably, in the first 20 games, Randle averaged 23 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 6 assists on 50.2/35.6/81.3 shooting splits. However, his production tailed off after the All-Star break. He averaged 18.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.2 assists on 44.9/28.2/75.3 shooting splits during this stretch.
Randle's ability to provide consistent second-option level production next to Anthony Edwards is one of the biggest swing factors for the Minnesota Timberwolves' success in the first-round against the Denver Nuggets.
Last season, this was a similar concern (although Randle was trending upward before the playoffs). As we should all remember, though, Randle quickly shut down these questions. Randle averaged 21.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on 50.2/38.5/88 shooting splits and was exceptional in the first two rounds, especially.
One of the bigger adjustments was Randle's 3-point shooting, which jumped from 34.4 percent to 38.5 percent. If Randle could make a similar jump from his 31.5 percent shooting this season, it would be a massive boost to the Wolves' chances.
Julius Randle shooting efficiently would boost the Timberwolves' upset chances
First and foremost, the Wolves will need consistent scoring and quick decision-making from Randle. Even if he doesn't shoot the ball at the same clip he did last season, there's a pathway for him to have a quality series.
Nevertheless, knocking down the deep ball more consistently would certainly increase the chances of a big series and, in turn, the Wolves' chances of finding scoring outside of Ant. This is particularly the case since Aaron Gordon will likely be guarding him, which won't allow Randle to play his traditional bully-ball style.
Furthermore, having more dependable spacing would open up things in a massive way for Ant. Overall, Randle's shooting would give the Wolves' erratic offense a much-needed extra wrinkle.
If you want to be pessimistic about Randle providing 3-point shooting, given how poorly he's shot this season, I understand your stance. Regardless, all it takes is seeing a few triples go in for this trend to be flipped, and Randle has proven he can get hot from beyond the arc at times. This, paired with the Nuggets giving up some of the most 3-pointers in the league, means that Randle could very well have a 3-point shooting outburst in the playoffs.
Without a doubt, if Randle has a productive series shooting the ball, the Wolves' chances of pulling off an upset will skyrocket.
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