When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded up in the 2024 draft to select dynamic guard Rob Dillingham with the No. 8 pick, there was plenty of optimism. His ability to create for himself and others filled a clear need for the Wolves. Even though Dillingham didn't play much as a rookie, this optimism remained last offseason, as he was primed for a bigger role following the departure of Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Unfortunately, Dillingham never earned Chris Finch's trust, and he struggled in limited minutes last season. He averaged just 3.5 points on 33.3 percent shooting from the field and fell out of the Wolves' rotation by December. Dillingham was granted a fresh start with the Chicago Bulls in a deal that helped the Wolves land Ayo Dosunmu.
Upon arriving in Chicago, Dillingham saw an uptick in minutes and all-around averages. Still, it remains unclear if Dillingham is truly an impactful rotation player. Entering his third season, it's time for Dillingham to definitively prove that he can be a positive contributor.
Why this is a make-or-break season for Rob Dillingham
On a rebuilding Bulls team, Dillingham should be given some real minutes, and he better take advantage of them.
The NBA has never been more competitive, and the margin for error (even for young players) is thin. If you can't prove that you are worthy of consistent minutes after three years, you won't be force-fed minutes or opportunities.
Regardless of what happens this season, Dillingham will likely have a spot on an NBA roster in 2027-28 given his prestige as a lottery pick. A poor season could mark the end of his rotational opportunities, though, and could lead to the end of his NBA career sooner rather than later. Plus, it's worth noting that the Bulls could decline Dillingham's $8.7 million team option next summer.
New Bulls lead executive Bryson Graham has noted that he has an affinity for two-way players, and his ideal player fits into the acronym of SLAP: Size, Length, Athleticism, Physicality. With all due respect, there isn't an acronym that less aptly describes the 6-foot-2, 175-pound Dillingham.
Considering this, it's fair to determine that this is a make-or-break year for Dillingham.
Where Dillingham needs to improve
Having gone over why this season is so important for Dillingham, let's now look at where exactly he needs to improve. Ironically, despite Dillingham's small frame and defensive concerns as a prospect, defense has arguably been his biggest strength at the NBA level. Dillingham is pesky on the ball and can force turnovers as a defensive disruptor.
That's not to say he's a plus defender, though. Likewise, a guard of his frame is unlikely to make his money on the defensive end of the floor.
As such, Dillingham needs to get back to the offensive promise he showcased in college. Simply put, Dillingham has struggled across the board on offense at the NBA level. Sure, he averaged 9.6 points with the Bulls after the deadline. Nevertheless, he shot just 42.8 percent from the field and 30 percent from 3-point range.
Dillingham has blazing speed and dynamic handles. Unless he bulks up, though, he'll always have trouble finishing through contact. You'd like to see some improvement in this regard, though.
Shooting is perhaps the easier way for Dillingham to carve out an NBA role. At Kentucky, he netted 44.4 percent of his 3-pointers, but at the NBA level, he has shot just 32.4 percent from deep range. Frankly, there's no real path for Dillingham to earn a sizable role unless his shot comes around.
Dillingham also needs to improve his decision-making abilities as a playmaker. Thus far, his assist percentage is 18.9, and his turnover percentage is 18.3. He often struggles to make the right reads and isn't much of a floor general to begin with. The need for him to improve as a playmaker is vital if he doesn't prove to be a truly dynamic all-around scorer.
Suffice it to say, Dillingham has a lot of work to do. But if he can put it all together, he could be an impactful microwave scorer with quality playmaking chops.
Even if he's on a different team, Timberwolves fans will surely be keeping an eye on Dillingham ahead of a crucial season, and I, for one, am rooting for him.
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