During the 2024 draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves made a bold move by trading a future first-round pick and a pick swap to select Rob Dillingham with the No. 8 pick. At the time, the gamble made sense to me—Minnesota needed a long-term point guard, and Dillingham could fill the void on a rookie contract. He was coming off a dynamic freshman season at Kentucky, and had the potential to be a superb three-level scorer.
As things stand now, though, Dillingham is out of the league. The Timberwolves traded Dillingham in a package for Ayo Dosunmu midway through his second season (the Wolves made out like bandits with this move). Late in the offseason, the Chicago Bulls traded him for an over-the-hill Buddy Hield. From there, the Charlotte Hornets waived him, and no team has picked him up, even on a two-way contract.
But what went wrong for Dillingham, and what does this tell us about how challenging it can be to be a young player?
Rob Dillingham's career path shows how thin the margin of error is for young players
Dillingham's slight 170-pound frame made it difficult for him to survive on defense and inhibited his ability to get to the rim. You pair that with his jumper disappearing, and he plainly didn't look like an NBA-caliber player with the Wolves.
Still, it was a tough situation—Dillingham was on a team with title aspirations, and it's normal for young players, especially smaller guards, to struggle early in their careers. On the Bulls, Dillingham did boost his points-per-game average to 9.6, but he did so with poor efficiency, shooting 42.8 percent from the field and 30 percent from deep range while still not holding up on defense. Evidently, the Bulls didn't believe in him as a long-term player.
Despite his struggles, I'm surprised that no team has given Dillingham another shot. Yes, he's at a size disadvantage, but he was a lottery pick just two years ago, and his early career had less-than-ideal circumstances.
It's one thing to see a competitive team in the Timberwolves give up on Dillingham, but it's truly jarring to see two bad teams part ways with him, and the rest of the league figuratively swipe left.
The reality is, though, that young players have to show evidence that they are legitimate NBA players, or else teams won't give them another chance. In other words, the margin of error for young players is razor-thin. Dillingham is living proof of this.
There are other examples: former No. 17 pick Jalen Hood-Schifino was out of the league after two seasons—another former Wolves lottery pick, Jarrett Culver, had three and a half years before his NBA career was over—and 2021 lottery pick James Bouknight, similarly, was out of the league after three seasons.
Maybe a team gives Dillingham another shot, but he's been available since late September. At this point, if Dillingham gets another chance, it'll likely be on a two-way or even G League contract.
The Stein Line reported that the Toronto Raptors considered signing Dillingham to a two-way contract before pivoting to Kevin McCullar. Frankly, while it would be nice to see Dillingham get an opportunity on a two-way contract, it would still be quite a fall from grace for the former lottery pick.
And building back on a two-way contract is tricky. You need to tear up the G League and/or be on a team with a severe need for guard play to even sniff rotation minutes. The point being is a tough road back for Dillingham even if someone rolls the dice on him.
Outside of Dillingham's lack of bankable NBA skills, his frame limits his upside. Surely, that's a factor in why nobody else has given him another chance. Even if Dillingham figures out how to score at an NBA level, it's unclear whether he can provide value outside of scoring. In the increasingly versatile NBA, that's troublesome.
Regardless of his flaws, it's clear that the NBA isn't easy for young players who aren't ready to play positive minutes from day one, and Dillingham is the latest example of this. It's unfortunate to see how Dillingham's post-Wolves career has played out, and clearly trading up for him didn't work out. At least the Timberwolves got a player as skilled as Dosunmu back in a trade involving Dillingham.
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