All of a sudden, a team that went 15-2 in March is now one that seems like a clear first-round exit. That would be the Los Angeles Lakers, who could be down two of their three best players.
Luka Doncic is out for the rest of the regular season with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Looking at how long others have been out with the injury, it shouldn’t be expected for the NBA’s leading scorer to be ready for the start of the playoffs. Austin Reaves is now also out four-to-6 weeks with a strained oblique.
The Minnesota Timberwolves just beat the Lakers in five games during last year’s opening round of the postseason. What is the likelihood that the two clubs meet up again, this time with LA very shorthanded?
Sixth seed doesn't assure a Timberwolves/Lakers playoff matchup
It is likely (87 percent chance per Basketball Reference) that the Timberwolves will finish as the sixth seed in the Western Conference, meaning they would play the third in the first round. It’s not a sure thing, though, as they are two games behind the fifth-place Houston Rockets, and both teams have five games remaining.Â
The season series is split 1-1 between them, with one matchup remaining on April 10 in Houston. Thus, the winner of that contest will have the tiebreaker.
Let’s say Minnesota stays in sixth. What needs to happen for the Lakers to stay in third?
On Saturday, their chances of doing so took somewhat of a blow as the Denver Nuggets came back to beat the San Antonio Spurs. That puts Denver (50-28) just a half-game behind the Lakers (50-27).
Before this game, the Lakers had an 83.8 percent chance to finish as the No. 3 seed, but that has now dropped down to 76.3.
LA does own the tiebreaker. Therefore, the Nuggets need to finish with a better record to move into third. The Lakers don’t have an easy remaining schedule, especially since they are shorthanded. They still have games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Golden State Warriors (Stephen Curry is back), and the Suns.
Denver’s last two games are against the Thunder and Spurs. Let’s say the Nuggets go 3-1 to end the season. They would jump to third if the Lakers go 2-3. That is entirely possible.
I can understand why Wolves fans are hoping to see the Lakers again in the first round. What I’m saying, though, is that a lot can still happen, so for fans rooting for them to stay in sixth, that’s not going to ensure that they face the purple and gold (could face them as a four-five matchup).
It could also give Minnesota its third playoff battle with the Nuggets in the last four years.