It's quite understandable that the Denver Nuggets are favored over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver is riding a 12-game winning streak, has been the more consistent team throughout the year, and has the best player in the world.
However, to act like the Nuggets are a flawless team is plainly false. The Nuggets' 21st-ranked defense (per Cleaning the Glass) is a clear weak point, which could make Anthony Edwards poised for a monster series. Another lesser discussed swing factor could be Jaden McDaniels' offensive production.
McDaniels reached new heights on offense this season, averaging 14.8 points, and against the Nuggets, he averaged 20.3 points in the regular season. During their four regular season meetings, the Nuggets often hide their weakest defender (mainly Jamal Murray) on McDaniels -- a strategy that proved to be wildly ineffective as JMAC shot 9-for-14 against Murray.Â
If this trend carries over and McDaniels can provide second-option level production, the Wolves' chances of pulling off an upset will skyrocket.
Jaden McDaniels seems primed for a big series against the Nuggets
Undoubtedly, one of the biggest questions regarding the Timberwolves' success against the Nuggets will be their secondary creation and scoring next to Edwards. This is especially the case given that Julius Randle may have a tough time with Aaron Gordon guarding him.
Regardless, McDaniels' ability to scale up, paired with the Nuggets' shaky defense, gives me some level of confidence that the Wolves can get quality production out of their supporting cast.
For McDaniels, the key will be to be aggressive and attack the rim. He is a fantastic finisher, shooting 72.7 percent at the rim. This, coupled with McDaniels drawing an easier matchup and Nikola Jokic's mediocre rim protection, could pave the way for a big series from McDaniels.
When McDaniels is at his best, he looks like a true two-way star, and his offensive impact jumps off the screen. As such, if McDaniels is cooking, the Nuggets' defense will be sorely exposed.
Now, I must acknowledge that things could change from the regular season. Gordon missed two of the games against the Wolves, and Peyton Watson missed the last game against Minnesota. We know that Gordon will be back, and Watson will likely be back at some point as well. This might change how the Wolves guard McDaniels.
Frankly, I remember being baffled by just how much Murray was guarding McDaniels back in March's game. Given how disastrous the results were for the Nuggets in the regular season, it would make sense if they changed things up.
Still, my point stands: Denver will be focused on limiting Anthony Edwards (and to a lesser extent, Julius Randle), which in turn will leave one of their weaker defenders on McDaniels. And since the Nuggets generally have a weaker defense, McDaniels can expose this problem.
There's plenty to be dubious about the Wolves' chances of pulling off a first-round upset. Nevertheless, McDaniels' offensive production against a subpar Nuggets' defense should be a key reason for optimism.
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