The regular season has officially concluded, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have secured the 6th seed in a brutally competitive Western Conference. Their reward? A first-round matchup with the 3rd-seeded Los Angeles Lakers. While the standings shuffled constantly down the stretch, the Wolves took care of business in their final three games, avoiding the play-in tournament and entering the postseason as a team capable of making noise.
But seedings aside, the question remains: Are the Timberwolves actually title contenders?
On paper, Minnesota checks a lot of boxes that historically define playoff success. Despite some inconsistency throughout the season, they've slowly become one of the league’s most well-rounded teams, and the numbers back it up. The Wolves finished the end of the regular season ranking:
- 8th in Offensive Rating
- 6th in Defensive Rating
- 4th in Net Rating
- 4th in 3-Point Shooting Percentage
On the right night, this balance at both ends of the floor allows the Wolves to beat anyone, and we've seen it at points this season, particularly in their conference matchups.
1. The Wolves have been elite against the Western Conference
The Timberwolves notched 33 wins against Western Conference opponents — the third-most in the West. While some of their struggles against weaker teams have been noticeable, they've largely taken care of business this season, posting a 30-12 record against teams under .500. This strong showing in the gauntlet of the Western Conference, combined with their ability to win the games they should, is indicative of the Wolves having a solid floor heading into the playoffs.
2. The Defense is Back
After having the top defense in the league last year, the Wolves' defense has returned to form this season, ranking 6th in the league defensive rating in 2024-25. In addition to having a surging Rudy Gobert as an anchor, the Wolves offer a plethora of elite wing defenders, allowing them to throw multiple options at opposing guards and wings. When this defense hits its ceiling, it is truly elite.
3. The Wolves Travel Well
Despite spells of inconsistency this year, one of the more underappreciated aspects of this team’s resume is their consistency both home and away. The Timberwolves have won at the same clip in both environments, posting 24-17 record on the road — just one win shy of their home record this season.
While holding serve on your home court is crucial, winning on the road in the playoffs is a different beast. Considering the momentum shifts that road wins bring in the playoffs, it's encouraging that the Wolves have proven they can consistently win away from Target Center — especially since they may not have home-court advantage in any playoff series this year as a 6-seed.
4. Shooting Gives the Offense Upside
Ranking 4th in the league in 3-point shooting percentage is nothing to sneeze at, especially on the fifth-most attempts per game in the league. The interesting part is - aside from Anthony Edwards' career shooting year, the Wolves core of shooters has never clicked at the same time this season.
Early on it was Naz Reid carrying the load while Mike Conley and Divincenzo struggled, then it was Nickeil Alexander-Walker struggling when Divincenzo found his shot, and recently it's been Reid struggling from three while Mike Conley and Alexander-Walker have seen an uptick in shooting. All this to say, if this group of shooters can get hot at the same time, the Minnesota offense could find another gear this postseason.
The Timberwolves have the ceiling to be championship contenders, and the metrics back it up. Their strong showing against the Western Conference, resurgent defense, road toughness, and shooting upside all point to a team with a high ceiling.
Their recent form suggests they’re primed to elevate their game in the postseason. With a tough first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, we’ll quickly find out just how close they are to reaching that ceiling.