Nickeil Alexander-Walker's play was one of the few bright spots for the Minnesota Timberwolves in their Western Conference Finals loss. He posted averages of 12 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.6 assists on 43.1/41.4/80 shooting splits. This included a 23-point outing in Game 4 and a 17-point performance in Game 2. Alexander-Walker's well-rounded impact was on full display during the WCF. However, this could have significant consequences for the Wolves as he enters free agency.
Alexander-Walker's value is clear
As a versatile defender with elite on-ball abilities, spot-up shooter, secondary playmaker, and creator, Alexander-Walker's impact is incredible. He is a quintessential glue guy and one of the league's best role players. Alexander-Walker's defense has always been elite, but the WCF highlighted his offensive value. Consequently, NAW will be a hot commodity on the open market. While Alexander-Walker's impact in the Conference Finals benefited the Wolves, it could hurt their chances of re-signing him.
Alexander-Walker is coming off a two-year $9 million contract and is understandably likely to seek a big payday. With his two-way contributions and impact in the playoffs, a team with cap space will give him a massive contract.
It will be challenging for the Wolves to re-sign NAW
The Wolves have one of the highest payrolls in the league. Furthermore, Julius Randle and Naz Reid have player options that they will likely decline. As a result, it will be challenging for the Wolves to re-sign all three players.
They will likely have to choose between NAW and Reid. Alexander-Walker's impact is clear, and the Wolves would love to have him back. However, likely losing Reid to re-sign NAW would be an unfortunate consequence. This was always a problem, but with Alexander-Walker's value going up in the playoffs, it will be even more challenging for the Wolves to re-sign him. The most likely scenario is that a team will offer NAW a sizable contract and that the Wolves will be priced out.
Another aspect that has to be discussed is that the Wolves might have a replacement for NAW on the roster in Terrence Shannon Jr. Conversely, nobody on the current roster could fill the void of Reid. Shannon's isolation scoring is his main calling card, but he also brings defensive energy and versatility similar to NAW. Jaylen Clark is another player who could see a bigger role if Alexander-Walker leaves.
Of course, it would be ideal to re-sign NAW, but having natural replacements on the roster makes it even less likely they'll re-sign him. Ultimately, all signs point to the Wolves losing Alexander-Walker in free agency.