On/off statistics reveal eye-opening Julius Randle revelation
By Will Eudy
In the early parts of the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have not exactly found their groove with their new starting lineup yet. Being a vastly different player from Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle's incorporation into the rotation has likely been much more difficult than meets the eye.
Getting other lineups to mesh has been a challenge, too. Many have been harsh critics of Chris Finch thus far this year, but this was never going to be a problem that was solved overnight. Ideally, things will be cleaned up in time for the Wolves to still return to the playoffs in April. As of right now, they stand at 11th in the Western Conference standings, outside the play-in range.
There have been several recurring problems Minnesota has dealt with over the course of the past five weeks, but making Randle work has arguably been one of the biggest. The style that he plays does not necessarily work as seamlessly next to Rudy Gobert as Towns' did, and there are some concerning numbers that accompany the eye test.
Numbers say Randle is having trouble defensively
Using on/off statistics, we can accurately gauge the effectiveness of certain players by measuring how the team performs when they are on the floor versus when they are on the bench. Using data from the NBA's official website, we can see that lineups where Randle and Gobert are on the floor register a 114.4 offensive rating, a 113 defensive rating, along with a +1.4 in plus/minus.
For those unfamiliar with this stat, a high offensive rating is indicative of a strong performance, while the same is true of a low defensive rating. Looking at other pairings, Randle and Naz Reid have posted a 119.8 offensive rating, and a dismal 124.1 defensive rating, to go along with a -4.4 plus/minus. Statistically, Naz Reid and Rudy Gobert have been the Timberwolves' best overall pairing, registering a 111 offensive rating, 105 defensive rating and a +6.6 plus/minus.
This tells us that Randle has struggled severely on the defensive end, which lines up with what we have been seeing on the hardwood. This is of course a troubling development, but not one that cannot be rectified.
Finch still has a tall task ahead of him to make this squad into a top team defensively once again. Clearly, finding lineups where Randle's currently lacking defense becomes less of a factor will be a priority. As the season goes on, it also feels likely he simply settles in and becomes more comfortable on that side of the ball as well.