Painful stat should put Timberwolves' contention chances in question

The Timberwolves are 1-4 against teams over .500.
Minnesota TImberwolves v Los Angeles Lakers
Minnesota TImberwolves v Los Angeles Lakers | Ronald Martinez/GettyImages

Sometimes a trend can be formed by an NBA team early into its season. Now, whether or not that trend continues throughout the whole year remains to be seen, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

In their first 8 games, the Timberwolves own a 4-4 record. On Wednesday, a bad scecond half led to a 137-114 blowout loss to the Knicks, a team Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo had extra motivation to beat. Early on, Minnesota’s season has mostly seen them defeat the bottom-feeders and struggle against better teams.

3 of 4 wins have come against bottom-feeders

After Wednesday’s loss, the Wolves are now 1-4 this year against teams over .500. Their lone win came on opening night against the Trail Blazers, who are 5-2 since that loss (including surprisingly handing the Thunder their first loss on Wednesday).

That means Minnesota has lost its last 4 against squads with winning records. Prior to the aforementioned loss to the Knicks, they were also defeated by the Lakers twice and the Nuggets. Three of the 4 games weren’t in doubt at the end, and in the other, an Austin Reaves' buzzer-beater gave the Lakers a one-point win.

The Timberwolves’ three wins against teams under .500 have come against teams with a combined overall record of 5-19. The Pacers and Nets are both 1-7, and Brooklyn just defeated Indiana on Wednesday to secure their first win.

Fairly easy upcoming schedule

The way their schedule is set up, the Timberwolves should have the opportunity to stack together some wins. Eight of their next nine contests are against teams that currently have losing records. 

Minnesota’s next four games see them alternate playing against the 3-5 Jazz and the 3-5 Kings. Utah has been doing better than expected, but was also weakened by the news announced yesterday that center Walker Kessler will be out for the season.

Other upcoming games against under-.500 teams are the 2-6 Mavericks (November 17), 1-7 Wizards (November 19), 3-5 Suns (November 21), and again the Kings on November 24. The one upcoming game against a winning team is their second meeting with the 5-2 Nuggets on November 15.

Last season, Minnesota went a respectable 19-21 against teams over .500. They  won 56 games in 2023-24, their second-most in franchise history, and a mark that was propped up with their 32-20 record against teams with winning records. This season is approximately just 10% over, but the Timberwolves are not yet playing at the level against the better teams that they were the previous two years.

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