Phil Jackson famously coined the "40/20 rule," stating that true title contenders must win their 40th game before suffering their 20th loss. Jackson won 13 championships (11 as a coach and two as a player), so it's safe to say that he knows a good amount about winning. More importantly, though, this rule has held true for the past 19 championship winners and all but three title winners since 1980 (in non-shortened seasons).
Unfortunately, the Minnesota Timberwolves lost their 20th game on Monday night. With 31 wins on the season, they're just below the 40/20 threshold.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons feel destined to hit this mark. Conversely, the Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, New York Knicks, Boston Celtics, and Los Angeles Lakers will have to put together an impressive stretch to join the 40/20 club.
History says that the Wolves aren't true contenders
Some people might scoff at this idea of the 40/20 rule. At face value, I get that it seems arbitrary, and as noted, there have been some exceptions to the rule. However, these exceptions are few and far between, and the history of this rule is undeniable.
Anyone who has watched the Timberwolves closely this year could tell you that inconsistency has plagued the team. At the start of the year, this manifested itself in not being able to perform against the league's best team. As time went on, though, the opposite has been true, as Minnesota has routinely played down to its competition. It felt fitting that a loss against the 19-29 Memphis Grizzlies put the 40/20 club out of reach for Minnesota.
The Wolves are one of the four teams to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, which is another great barometer of a title contender. At the same time, both ends of the floor have been sources of inconsistencies for the Wolves.
Defensively, their effort waxes and wanes, especially against lesser opponents. Offensively, they often have cold spells in the clutch, ranking 18th in clutch-time offense and 29th in clutch-time turnover percentage.
Of course, regular season play isn't the end-all, be-all, but great teams need to separate themselves, and the Wolves have some alarming habits.
Now I wouldn't completely discount the Wolves' title chances. A possible trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo at the deadline or a minor move around the margins could change their outlook. Plus, the Wolves have surprised the NBA world before with back-to-back conference finals runs.
With Anthony Edwards on your team, it's fair to expect the unexpected. Nevertheless, history is not in the Wolves' favor regarding their title chances.