The NBA offseason is off to the races. While most of the association's squads began plotting their next moves over a month ago, the Minnesota Timberwolves recently shifted their focus from an NBA Championship to the offseason.
The NBA Draft is up next, but free agency looms near after. The official NBA free agency window opens on June 30 at 5:00 p.m. CT—just three days after the draft's conclusion. Thus the Timberwolves brass has just over three weeks to figure out which players make the most sense.
Coming off perhaps the best season in franchise history, the Timberwolves offseason will be crucial. First, the Wolves retained one of the best personnel decision-makers in the business—Tim Connelly. Connelly was the orchestrator of the once-maligned Rudy Gobert trade which eventually led to Minnesota's top-ranked defense this past season.
With Connelly in the fold for at least one more season, smooth waters should be ahead. Although an impending ownership change is on the horizon, all things basketball should remain consistent. The Wolves' core roster is locked in. Minnesota will retain its top-seven scorers from a season ago.
The squad's only free agents are Kyle Anderson, Monte Morris, Jordan McLaughlin, T.J. Warren, Luka Garza, and Daishen Nix. Of the aforementioned free agents, only one (Anderson) recorded more than 1,000 minutes on the hardwood.
The Timberwolves' biggest needs will be a point guard to spell soon-to-be 37-year-old Mike Conley; a reserve forward; and additional shooting to bolster a relatively low-volume 3-point shooting squad. Below, we've identified three targets—a dream, a reach, and a realistic free agent acquisition for Minnesota.
Dream free agent: Kelly Oubre
To begin the list, we have former Philadelphia 76er Kelly Oubre. The 6-foot-7 wing is coming off a season where he averaged 15.4 points and 5.0 rebounds in 30.2 minutes per game. What makes Oubre a logical signing is his potential price point and scoring acumen.
Although the former Kansas Jayhawk may have played himself out of Minnesota's price range, he signed a one-year, minimum contract just a year ago after averaging 20.3 points per game for the Charlotte Hornets.
Oubre's value is debatable. He's an athletic wing who can score the rock, but he does so inefficiently. Aside from his inconsistent shooting, Oubre's defensive tenacity wanes. This past season, he was serviceable on the defensive end, racking up more than a steal per game and allowing his opponents to shoot just 0.4 percent better when he acted as the primary defender.
Oubre may sign a contract worth $10 million or more per season. On the contrary, the 28-year-old wing may want to suit up for another squad with championship aspirations after appearing in just 18 playoff games throughout the first eight seasons of his career.
With Anderson hitting the market, the Wolves have a void at forward to fill. Oubre doesn't offer the same steady decision-making or fundamental defense as Anderson, but he'll add a much-needed scoring jolt.
The Wolves lacked on-ball scorers besides Anthony Edwards, and at times, Jaden McDaniels in the postseason. Oubre is a versatile scorer who excels both off-the-catch and off-the-dribble. Again, he may not be the most efficient, but neither was Anderson who averaged just 6.4 points per game this past season.
Reach free agent: Markelle Fultz
Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz is one of the oddest cases in recent memory. After entering the 2017 NBA Draft as the surefire first-overall pick, Fultz's career has never quite taken off. Now 25 years old, his once-promising potential seems to be on its last legs.
Fultz might just be who he is—an athletic slasher who's also a plus playmaker. The 6-foot-5 guard made just 4-of-18 triples in 43 appearances this past season. Nearly 70 percent of his looks came within 10 feet of the basket.
His length and athleticism allow him to get where he wants on the floor and to score over bigger defenders in the paint. However, his lack of jump-shot range has plagued the young guard. Fultz has never shot better than 31.0 percent from beyond the arc.
The former first-overall pick's impressive traits would lead you to believe he's a quality defender. Nonetheless, his opponents shot much better from the floor when defended by Fultz. The Magic guard was abysmal defending the rim—his opponents shot 14.1 percent better when Fultz played primary defender.
Conversely, the staunch Orlando defense was even better with Fultz on the floor. During Fultz's minutes, the Magic forced more turnovers, allowed fewer offensive rebounds, and held opponents to 1.8 points less per 100 possessions.
While there are multiple flaws in the 25-year-old guard's game, there are also various reasons to believe Fultz will improve. Taking a bet on Fultz as he hits his first free agency figures to be a good bargain. It'll be surprising to see the athletic guard receive a similar contract after making $50 million over the past three years.
Fultz likely settles for a one-year prove-it deal similar to Oubre a season ago. He's struggled to stay healthy and hasn't lived up to his draft pedigree let alone his last contract. Minnesota is a fantastic spot to revive some of his lost value.
The Magic guard would spell Conley and line up alongside the equally physically impressive Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the reserve backcourt. As a member of the bench unit, Fultz would be surrounded by shooters such as Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid—thus hiding his main flaw.
Realistic free agent: Reggie Jackson
Veteran point guard Reggie Jackson feels like a signing a contender such as Minnesota would make. He's a veteran point guard who will likely bounce from squad to squad on team-friendly pacts as his career winds down. At 34, Jackson profiles as a serviceable backup floor general with significant scoring upside.
Jackson is a good player but he's never been the most consistent shooter. He's accumulated several 40-plus percent seasons from beyond the arc while shooting worse than 35.0 percent for half the seasons he's played.
This past season, the Denver guard shot 43.1 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from downtown. In 82 appearances, he averaged 10.2 points per game. Aside from his scoring, he displayed keen playmaking ability. Jackson averaged 3.8 assists per contest.
Another Conley reserve, Jackson gives the Wolves strong scoring acumen with the ability to pilot the second unit. In the playoffs, the Wolves lacked various on-ball scoring options. Although not a sixth-man-of-the-year-level scorer, Jackson can easily provide 10-plus points off the pine.
Jackson can score both on and off the ball. He even attempted more pull-ups than spot-up attempts—a common theme amongst go-to scorers. On pull-up 2-pointers, Jackson notched a field goal percentage of 37.5 percent. His 3-point pull-up percentage was slightly worse at 31.4 percent. However, when Jackson attempted a spot-up three he shot over 40 percent.
What Fultz brings on the defensive end isn't something Jackson can replicate. Although his opponents shot just slightly better than usual against Jackson—he's never been a strong defender. And at 34 years old, Jackson will likely never be a prominent defender.
Alas, in just about 20 minutes per game, his defense won't be essential to winning games. While his defense may not be up to par, his absurd wingspan (7 feet) and quickness don't allow for Jackson to be a bad defender.