The Minnesota Timberwolves are far exceeding expectations this season. At 39-16, the Timberwolves sit atop the Western Conference standings. Minnesota ranked eighth in the West a year ago, with a 31-30 record at the All-Star break.
Thus far, the defense has been elite. The Wolves allow the least points per game and rank first in the NBA in defensive rating. Led by perennial Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Wolves are stout from the inside out.
All five Wolves starters rank in the top 50 in the NBA in defensive rating, defensive box plus-minus, and defensive win shares. Minnesota is truly a defensive juggernaut which typically coincides with being a powerhouse squad in today's NBA.
An offensive explosion has taken over the league recently, but quality team defense remains king. Nine of the 10 best defensive teams in the NBA have won at least 30 games this season. Only one of the past five champions have placed outside the top 10 in defensive rating, and that champion came in at number 15.
Superb on the defensive end, Minnesota is no slouch on offense. Despite being a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to points per game, the Wolves rank in the top 10 in both field goal and 3-point percentage.
It's no aberration, Minnesota's combination of efficient offense and league-best defense have catapulted the squad into the upper echelon. Several players have outperformed preseason expectations, pushing the Timberwolves over the edge.
However, other players have stagnated or declined in the 2023-24 season. Here, we'll analyze three players who have exceeded expectations and three who have vastly underperformed.
Underperforming: Jordan McLaughlin
The first underperformer, Jordan McLaughlin, was counted on to step into the backup point guard role. Although the Timberwolves signed Shake Milton in the offseason, the 27-year-old is more of a true floor general, thus capable of playing alongside the former Philadelphia 76er.
While Milton is an obvious underachiever, he only played 38 games in Minnesota before being shipped out alongside Troy Brown Jr. and a second-round pick for Detroit Pistons' guard Monte Morris. Therefore he's excluded from the list.
Acquiring Morris wasn't just to ditch Milton, it was also to improve the backup point guard spot behind starter Mike Conley Jr. McLaughlin just wasn't cutting it. This season, the diminutive guard is averaging a measly 2.5 points and 1.6 assists in 8.9 minutes per game.
After numerous DNPs to begin the season, head coach Chris Finch opted to play McLaughlin instead of the now-departed Milton. In 16 appearances in January, McLaughlin averaged 3.6 points and 2.3 boards per game.
The veteran point guard is a dependable third-stringer, but his porous offensive efficiency makes him an iffy direct backup. This season, McLaughlin is shooting an abysmal 39.5 percent from the floor.
Throughout his career, he's a solid 43.5 percent shooter. However, his 3-point percentage leaves much to be desired at 34.8 percent. McLaughlin has shown some intriguing playmaking chops, but his scoring has held him back.
This year provided the perfect opportunity for McLaughlin to seize the lead reserve guard spot. But halfway through the season, it was obvious an upgrade was needed.
Exceeding expectations: Nickeil Alexander-Walker
One of the more intriguing transformations the league has seen, Nickeil Alexander-Walker went from an offensive gunner to a defensive menace. To begin his career, the Virginia Tech product looked to score early and often.
As a member of the New Orleans Pelicans, Alexander-Walker averaged 9.9 points per game, but he shot a nauseating 38.9 percent from the field and 33.0 percent from beyond the arc. Before departing New Orleans in 2022, Alexander-Walker was attempting 12.6 shots per game and only converting on 4.7 of his attempts.
After the swingman was traded to the Utah Jazz, his transformation began. He played limited minutes in his first half-season in Utah. But once the 2022-23 season had commenced, Alexander-Walker turned a new leaf and his play carried over to Minnesota.
This year, in his full first season with the Timberwolves, Alexander-Walker is averaging 7.0 points, 1.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 0.9 steals per game. He's also shooting a rock-solid 37.6 percent from beyond the arc.
His offensive contributions aren't otherworldly, but his defense has been fantastic. Of all players who have appeared in 25 or more contests, Alexander-Walker ranks 38th in field goal percentage difference. Alexander-Walker's opponents shoot 4.0 percent worse when he's the primary defender.
The Minnesota guard is especially stifling on two-point attempts, forcing opponents to shoot 7.7 percent worse from inside the arc. The 6-foot-6 Alexander-Walker uses his lateral quickness and long frame (6-foot-10 wingspan) to stay in front of both guards and wings and contest their attempts at the rim.
On a modest two-year, $9 million contract, the former first-rounder has become an invaluable part of the Wolves' rotation. He's a slasher and a capable spot-up threat on offense. And on defense, he's more than up to the challenge of defending the opposition's best perimeter player.
Underperforming: Kyle Anderson
Although he looked better before the All-Star break, Minnesota forward Kyle Anderson had been enduring a rough season. A year ago, Anderson averaged 9.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.9 assists while shooting 50.9 percent from the floor and 41.0 percent from three.
This season, Anderson is down to 6.1 points, 3.5 boards, and 4.1 assists per game. Not only have his counting stats declined, but his shooting percentages have fallen off a cliff. He's shooting 46.4 percent from the field and 21.9 percent from downtown.
The UCLA product isn't known to be a 3-point marksman, yet he drilled 0.6 triples per game a season ago. This year, he's knocked down just seven of 32 attempts from deep. Luckily for the Timberwolves, Naz Reid, a 41.8 percent 3-point shooter, operates alongside Anderson in the reserve unit.
As previously mentioned, Anderson's game may be turning a corner. In February, the 6-foot-9 forward is averaging 5.4 points and 4.9 assists per contest. Perhaps most important, he's an astounding plus-22.4.
After a horrid two-month stretch where Anderson shot 08.3 percent from deep in December and recorded a negative plus-minus in January, the veteran forward seems to be finding his groove.
Time will tell if Anderson ultimately improves on what's been an abysmal season. Currently, he ranks last amongst Minnesota rotation players when it comes to net rating and plus-minus. His defense has remained stout, but his offense requires a makeover during the second half of the season.
Exceeding Expectations: Naz Reid
Like the last slide said, the Wolves are fortunate to have Reid on the roster. Making up for his counterpart's weak play, the 24-year-old big man has been sensational on the offensive end.
This season, Reid is averaging 12.2 points in just 22.5 minutes per game. He's scoring with incredible efficiency, knocking down 55.6 percent of his twos and 41.8 percent of his threes. Although his two-point percentage has seen a slight dip, he's never been more accurate from 3-point range.
Reid is also launching more triples than ever before. On the year, he's connecting on 1.9 of 4.6 triples per contest. Reid ranks second amongst centers in 3-point makes, only behind his All-Star teammate, Karl-Anthony Towns.
What makes Reid so special is his combination of spot-up and off-the-dribble shot-making. From 3-point range, the Minnesota big man shoots better off-the-catch. However, on two's, Reid's field goal percentage increases when he takes at least one dribble.
For instance, Reid shoots 48.7 percent on two-point attempts without taking a dribble. But when he takes at least one dribble, his percentage increases to 51.4 percent. And when he takes between three and six dribbles, Reid's two-point field goal percentage is an even 50.0 percent.
Despite his infrequent amount of drives per game, Reid ranks fourth on the team, shooting 52.8 percent on drives to the rim. He's an extremely versatile offensive weapon and a luxury to have come off the bench.
Underperforming: Jaden McDaniels
Perhaps not mentioned enough is Jaden McDaniels' poor follow-up season to a breakout campaign in 2022-23. To be fair, the 23-year-old forward missed his fair share of action to begin the season.
The fourth-year wing missed the beginning of the season due to an ailing calf. His return to action was short-lived. After appearing in 11 contests, McDaniels injured his ankle, forcing him out of the lineup for an additional two weeks.
Since his early string of injuries, McDaniels has been healthy, but his play has tailed off. Not too long ago, the rising star agreed to a massive contract extension worth $136 million over five seasons.
The extension was given in part to his massive potential, efficient offense, and All-NBA level defense. Last season, while appearing in 79 games, McDaniels averaged 12.1 points, 0.9 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. He managed to shoot career-highs, 51.7 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from beyond the arc.
This season, in 45 appearances, McDaniels is averaging just 10.7 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the floor and 35.7 percent from three. He's seen a decline in offensive production, but his defense remains elite.
McDaniels is a deterrent on the defensive end of the floor. Opponents are shooting 3.6 percent worse when he's the primary defender. When it comes to attempts with six feet, McDaniels is stifling. His opponents are shooting 10.1 percentage points from the paint.
We get it, he's a monster on defense, but is a so-so offensive contributor worth $27 million per season? That question remains unanswered. Still, time is ticking for McDaniels to display increased production on offense. Whether it be shooting or playmaking, some type of improvement must come to fruition.
Exceeding Expectations: Rudy Gobert
It's not typical that a player can be both overrated and underrated at the same time. However, that player does exist and his name is Rudy Gobert. Being a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, it's impossible to be overlooked.
Throughout his career, Gobert has consistently excelled on the defensive end. Despite his all-world defensive contributions, his perception as a player is less-than-stellar. It may be because of his rigid offensive game or because of his many feuds with current players, but all in all, Gobert is a difference-maker in this league.
Since Gobert became a full-time starter in 2015-16, his team has never ranked worse than 13th in the league in defensive rating. Over those nine years, his team has ranked inside the top three in more than half of the nine seasons.
This season, Gobert has unlocked the Timberwolves' defensive potential. Minnesota ranks first in the NBA in defensive rating and allows the least points per game. The Wolves also rank in the top 10 in both block and defensive rebound percentage.
Aside from his direct correlation to top-notch team defense, Gobert is a tremendous individual defender. The "stifle tower" ranks first in the league in defensive rating and defensive win shares.
After a relatively down year a season ago, Gobert is back up above 2.0 blocks per game. He's also back over the 12-rebound per game mark, averaging 12.5 boards per contest. The seven-foot big man is a once-in-a-lifetime interior defender.
Gobert is forcing his opponents to shoot a mind-boggling 14.9 percent worse on field goal attempts within six feet. The French center ranks in the 100th percentile of all NBA players when it comes to crafted defensive plus-minus.
The Gobert-to-Minnesota trade was initially viewed as a blunder for the Timberwolves. Now, less than two seasons later, the Wolves are first in the West and Gobert deserves much of the credit.