Blazers vs. Timberwolves NBA expert prediction and odds for Monday, March 4 (How to bet total)

The Minnesota Timberwolves squandered the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference on Sunday, losing to the Los Angeles Clippers while the Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Phoenix Suns to take the top spot in the conference. 

Now, both Minnesota and OKC play on Monday night with a chance for the Wolves to re-take the lead in the West. Minnesota will match up with the Portland Trail Blazers – a team that the Wolves have dominated this season – in Minnesota. 

The Wolves are 3-0 in this matchup this season, but the team hasn’t been elite against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs this season, going 4-4 against the spread. 

Can the Wolves change that on Monday? 

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Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Blazers vs. Timberwolves odds, spread and total

Blazers vs. Timberwolves how to watch

• Date: Monday, March 4
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to watch (TV): Root Sports Northwest, Bally Sports North
• Blazers record: 17-42
• Timberwolves record: 42-19 

Blazers vs. Timberwolves injury reports

Blazers injury report

• Deandre Ayton – questionable
• Malcolm Brogdon – out
• Jerami Grant – doubtful
• Scoot Henderson – out
• Justin Minaya – questionable
• Shaedon Sharpe – out
• Matisse Thybulle – questionable
• Robert Williams III – out

Timberwolves injury report

• Not submitted yet 

Blazers vs. Timberwolves key players to watch

Portland Trail Blazers

Anfernee Simons: If the Blazers want to win – or even cover – Simons has to be better than he’s been against the Wolves this season. In three meetings against Minnesota, Simons has scored five, 20 and 12 points, shooting a combined 10-for-44 from the field. Simons is coming off a 30-point game, so maybe he can ride that momentum into this matchup. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns: Minnesota has handled Portland in every game this season, so we haven’t seen much of Towns (he hasn’t played over 30 minutes in a single game against them), but he’s still scored at a high rate with a pair of 23-point games. Towns could be big on the second night of a back-to-back with Anthony Edwards landing on the injury report on Sunday. 

Blazers vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick

These teams have played three times this season, and in each game, the Wolves have held the Blazers to 109 or fewer points, including two games where Portland failed to break 95 points. 

After watching Minnesota play an absolute slugfest on Sunday – an 89-88 loss – I think the team is due for some positive regression, making the OVER the play on Monday. 

In the Timberwolves’ eight back-to-backs this season, the team is 6-2 on the OVER, and it’s hit the OVER on this number in two of its three games against Portland despite the Blazers struggling to score. 

Portland ranks just 20th in the NBA in defensive rating, and the team could be without several key rotation players tonight with Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe already ruled out and Deandre Ayton listed as questionable. 

Minnesota struggled against the Clippers, but I expect the team to bounce back here. The Wolves have scored 128, 121 and 116 points in their three games against Portland this season. 

As long as the Blazers can come close to 100 points, Minnesota should do enough to push this total OVER for the seventh time in nine tries on a second night of a back-to-back. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.