Predicting the Timberwolves' floor and ceiling for the 2024-25 season

Timberwolves' floor

As referenced at the beginning of the "Timberwolves' ceiling" portion, the Western Conference is grueling. With how difficult the West is, there's a chance no team wins more than 52 games. If this were the case, amounting to 45-plus wins would be considered a success. For instance, just two years ago, the fourth-seeded Phoenix Suns went 45-37.

If the defense regresses, opposing teams improve, and injuries play more of a part this upcoming season, the Wolves will inevitably see a decline in the win column. Defensive regression is possible, but it's not too common. Amongst the top-ranked teams in terms of defensive rating, only one team in the past five years saw a bottom-half finish the year after.

Even if Minnesota doesn't pace the league in defensive rating, it's unlikely for the Wolves to drop out of the top half completely. It's more likely Minnesota retains a top ranking, or they fall to the 5-10 range. Since Gobert is slated to start at center, the Wolves are all but guaranteed to trot out a stellar defense.

The Timberwolves' defense is sustainable

However, if the Silver Medalist happens to miss time, the Wolves defense will suffer. Minnesota is flush with solid perimeter defenders but only employs one rim-altering presence. Towns has improved on the defensive end, but he's not what one would consider a defensive anchor. In the Timberwolves' most common lineup including Towns sans Gobert, they gave up 122 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the 21st percentile.

Of course, injuries tend to derail seasons (see the 2023-24 Memphis Grizzlies), but Gobert missing any time is detrimental. Also, the Frenchman is now 32 years old and saw decreased playing time in the Olympics. If Gobert's rocky Olympic play carries over into the regular season, there's reason for decline.

Besides Gobert, the Wolves start Conley, who is entering his 18th professional season. Even though the veteran point guard isn't reliant on his athleticism, he's due for a relative decline. Conley's points per game have decreased in every season since 2020. He's still a plus-playmaker and a knockdown spot-up shooter, but advanced age correlates with diminishing defense. If Conley's minutes were to decrease, the Wolves would be without an experienced reserve floor general.

Rostering Edwards, Towns, and Gobert should guarantee 45 wins. Unfortunately, we've witnessed the trio amass only 42 wins. Except, in said season, the Wolves missed nearly 30 games from Towns and began the season with D'Angelo Russell piloting the opening unit instead of Conley. Fast forward two years and the Wolves have a strong culture, a vast talent pool, and several youngsters who will only get better as time goes on.

Timberwolves' floor: 47-35