Spurs vs. Timberwolves NBA expert prediction and odds for Tuesday, Feb. 27 (Trust an elite Minnesota defense)

The Spurs are in the basement of the Western Conference and find themselves in familiar territory as a double-digit underdog in its trip to Minnesota Tuesday night. The Spurs have an upset of Minnesota under its belt already this season, can they hang within the big spread on Tuesday night? 

The Timberwolves continue their season-long battle to stay at the summit of the Western Conference. Minnesota is tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for first place and the two squads have just a 1.5-game lead over the reigning champion Nuggets. After losing to Milwaukee, Minnesota flexed its defensive muscles in a 101-86 win over Brooklyn on Saturday. 

Here’s the betting preview for the fourth installment of Spurs-Timberwolves this season with a best bet. 

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Spurs vs. Timberwolves odds, spread and total

Spurs vs. Timberwolves how to watch

• Date: Tuesday, Feb. 27
• Game time: 8 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to watch (TV): Bally Sports
• Spurs record: 11-47
• Timberwolves record: 40-17

Spurs vs. Timberwolves injury report

San Antonio Spurs

• Marcus Morris (not with team): out

Minnesota Timberwolves

• Rudy Gobert (ankle): questionable 

Spurs vs. Timberwolves key players to watch

Spurs

Keldon Johnson: San Antonio's first-round pick in 2019 was benched in Sunday’s road loss to Utah after just four minutes? Will he stay glued to the bench or will the Kentucky product get another run in the rotation? Johnson, averaging 15.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game this season, played a huge role in San Antonio’s upset of Minnesota in January with 14 points and seven rebounds off the bench. 

Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards: At this rate, Edwards is a key player anytime Minnesota takes the floor. Edwards has continued to put up big numbers after the All-Star break, scoring above his season-long average (26.3 points per game) in each of the first two games with 28 against Milwaukee and 29 vs. Brooklyn. Edwards is No. 9 in the NBA in usage and isn’t shy about letting it fly, ranking eighth in the NBA in field goal attempts per game (19.5).

Spurs vs. Timberwolves  prediction and pick

In San Antonio’s one-point upset of the Timberwolves Jan. 27, the Spurs were unconscious from the field, shooting 54.8% from the field. Minnesota was efficient, too, hitting at a 57% clip from the field and 53.8% rate from downtown, but went just 8-of-15 from the free-throw line and San Antonio pulled off a stunner.

Predicting Tuesday’s matchup, it’s easy to project that San Antonio won’t enjoy such offensive prowess in its trip to Target Center. In the previous two matchups between these two teams (two Minnesota wins), the Spurs were held to just a combined 81-of-193 from the field (41.9%).

They’ll face an elite Timberwolves’ defense that is No. 1 in defensive rating (107.9), scoring (106.4 points per game) and opposing field goal percentage (44.5%). They’re also second in the NBA in rebounding and allowing points in the paint. Dominant center Rudy Gobert practiced Monday after missing Saturday’s win over Brooklyn and could suit up, as well. 

The Spurs are ready to finish up what has been a brutal nine-game road trip. San Antonio hasn’t played at home since Feb. 3, but has shown some juice away from home, covering its last two games as a double-digit underdog. Minnesota is just 5-6 ATS when laying double digits this season.

Instead of betting on the Timberwolves to pull away, trust the Minnesota defense to stymie a San Antonio offense that is 25th in the NBA in scoring on the road. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.