As the NBA playoffs approach, the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in the midst of a tight playoff race in the Western Conference. But as we all know, matchups matter in the playoffs. Not all playoff opponents are created equal, and for the Wolves, some teams would be a much more favorable draw than others.
The standings are tight, and seeds could move any which way. But if the Timberwolves make the playoffs and fall somewhere between a 4-8 seed, here’s how we rank their potential first-round opponents from most to least favorable:
1. Memphis Grizzles - Most favorable
The most favorable matchup for Minnesota would be the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis has struggled recently to close games, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games, and their offensive firepower is severely limited with Ja Morant’s health still a huge question mark. Without Morant at full strength, the Grizzlies lack consistency on offense.
Minnesota has the defensive tools to throw a variety of looks at Memphis, which could make life difficult for their perimeter players over the course of a playoff series. The main concern for the Wolves in this matchup, as in most, would be whether they can generate enough offense to take full advantage of any strong defensive stretches, and Jaren Jackson Jr. poses a significant threat to that.
2. Houston Rockets
Houston is the least experienced team in the playoff picture and have slowly slipped in the standings over the last few weeks. Even within the organization, there have been admissions of struggles closing games offensively, which bodes well for Minnesota. However, Houston presents some unique challenges, particularly with Alperen Sengun, whose versatile offensive game could create problems for Minnesota’s bigs.
Chris Finch has said previously that the Gobert-Sengun matchup typically dictates the outcome of these matchups, so the Wolves would need Gobert at his best to survive this series. Additionally, the Rockets are one of the best perimeter defenses in the league, which would require a ton of energy for Anthony Edwards and other Wolves’ ball-handlers to work against over the course of a series.
3. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have officially found their form after a slow start to the season, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 games. While Nikola Jokic remains an unsolvable problem for any defense, the Wolves do match up well with Denver’s supporting cast. The Timberwolves showed this in last year’s matchup, holding Jamal Murray to just 18.4 points per game in the Western Conference semis.
Defensively, they have the personnel to make life difficult for the Nuggets' secondary scorers with defenders like Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels, and Jaylen Clark capable of disrupting creators like Murray and Michael Porter Junior. Minnesota was fortunate to escape their series against Denver last year, but if they can find ways to keep pace offensively, they should be able to create stretches where the Nuggets struggle to score against their perimeter defenders.
4. Golden State Warriors
The addition of Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline changes the calculus of how much defensive attention the Wolves can throw at Steph Curry. With both Curry and Butler having significant gravity in their offensive sets, Minnesota’s usual size advantage could be neutralized. To win this matchup, the Wolves would have to fully exploit the offensive mismatches with Julius Randle and Naz Reid while also controlling the glass on defense. With so much defensive attention on Curry and Butler, rebounding and limiting second-chance opportunities would be critical in this matchup.
5. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers’ acquisition of Luka Doncic from Dallas has completely transformed their offense, making them a far more dangerous team than they were earlier in the season. The Lakers may lack traditional size defensively, but they compensate with versatility, thanks to players like LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Much like in a matchup with the Warriors, the Wolves would need to impose their size advantage with Rudy Gobert, Randle, and Naz Reid, all of whom should provide matchup problems for Jaxson Hayes. That said, the Lakers would look to force switches against the Wolves’ defense, which Lebron and Luka are a masters at exploiting. The Timberwolves' ability to defend multiple positions and navigate screens would be tested heavily against a red-hot Lakers team.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder - Least favorable
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a nightmare for Minnesota to defend this season, consistently finding ways to score even against the Wolves’ best perimeter defenders. Beyond SGA, the Thunder’s defensive versatility presents a major headache for the Wolves' offense, which has struggled with consistency throughout the year.
Minnesota has managed to stay competitive in these matchups by limiting OKC’s secondary scoring options, but relying on poor shooting nights from the Thunder isn’t a sustainable playoff strategy. Keeping pace offensively would be a massive challenge in this series. While obviously needing a superstar effort from Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid’s contributions would be critical for the Wolves to have any chance at an upset against the Thunder, as he’s been the most obvious matchup exploit for the Wolves against the Thunder this season.
In the end, Minnesota has the versatility on defense to make them a tough out for any opponent, but some matchups are clearly more favorable than others, especially given their offensive inconsistencies the past two seasons. Ideally, the Timberwolves would like to face a struggling Memphis squad or an inexperienced Houston team in the first round of the playoffs. If they want to make a serious run this postseason, the likes of Oklahoma City or the revamped Lakers would be serious tests for this team.