The 2023-24 Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team featured two standout freshman guards. Both of those players, Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, were selected third and eighth overall, respectively, in the 2024 NBA Draft.
However, both players had a difficult time getting regular minutes during their rookie year for Western Conference playoff teams, combining to play 1,170 total minutes in the regular season. Many may believe that Sheppard is the one more likely to take a step forward in 2025-26, but Dillingham could be the one who receives more of an opportunity to do so.
Both players struggled with their shots as rookies
At first glance, the Rockets have a deeper roster than the Timberwolves. Now, deeper doesn’t necessarily mean better. That was the case for them last season as well, which is why Sheppard had a difficult time finding his way into the rotation. It didn’t help that the now 21-year-old didn’t shoot the ball well. Sheppard connected on 33.8% of his three-point tries as a rookie, a far cry from the incredible 52.1% three-point accuracy from his one year at Kentucky.
That was a major issue with Dillingham as well. After shooting 44.4% from beyond the arc as a freshman at Kentucky, he shot 33.8% as a rookie, the same mark as Sheppard.
While the Rockets have a lot of depth, both teams seem to be lacking a true backup point guard that can be relied upon in the rotation other than the two second-year players. Aaron Holiday has proven to be solid for the Rockets but has a limited ceiling.
The Timberwolves don’t really have one other than Dillingham, although they have long been rumored to be bringing back Bones Hyland. He barely played after joining Minnesota last season, and it would likely be the same this year.
Still, Holiday certainly can be a part of the Rockets’ rotation if Sheppard doesn’t get going early. Also, Houston starting point guard Fred VanVleet is 31, while Mike Conley of the Timberwolves will be 38 on October 11. Conley’s minutes will almost certainly decline after averaging 24.7 minutes in 2024-25. While he’s had a wonderful career, he is clearly on the decline and coming off a miserable postseason run shooting-wise.
Expanded roles in 2025-26
Both teams have championship aspirations. Right now, Houston has more players who have proven they can be part of a rotation on a good team. That can certainly change for Minnesota, but as of now, we haven’t seen Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen Clark, or Dillingham in that full-time role. None were used in last season’s playoffs until Chris Finch inserted Shannon Jr. into the rotation in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals.
I do expect both Sheppard and Dillingham to see expanded roles this season. The Rockets have the roster, though, where they can be a bit more patient with Sheppard than the Timberwolves can with Dillingham. It can be argued that Minnesota’s ceiling (not floor, but ceiling) may be higher with Dillingham playing over Conley. That can’t be said when it comes to Sheppard playing over VanVleet.