Rudy Gobert has a clear DPOY case — but nobody is talking about it

During the first 12 games of the season, the Defensive Player of the Year race seemed like a forgone conclusion with Victor Wembanyama being the overwhelming favorite. This was understandable, to say the least. Wembanyama's rare blend of dominant rim protection, versatility, and impact on his team's defense gave him a clear case. Not to mention, we've never seen a player quite like him.

However, Wembanyama has been sidelined with a calf injury since November 16. Per the NBA's 65-game rule, Wembanyama can only miss seven more games to be eligible for awards. Unfortunately, I wouldn't bet on him reaching the threshold. Wemby's injury undoubtedly opens up the DPOY race.

Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert has a clear case to take home this award, but it's unlikely to happen. I get the idea of voter fatigue since Gobert has already won four DPOYs; it's unlikely they'd give him his record-breaking fifth DPOY. Regardless, that doesn't change the fact that Gobert has an awesome DPOY case and should be discussed more with the field wide open.

DraftKings lists Chet Holmgren as the DPOY favorite with plus-140 odds, and Wembanyama is third with plus-650 odds. All the way, tied for the 10th-best odds is Gobert with plus-5,000 odds. I'm sorry, but wait, what?

The case for Rudy Gobert to win DPOY

I get it, Gobert probably won't win the award because he already has four times. However, Gobert being on the fringe of making an All-Defensive team based on these odds is insane. Per Cleaning the Glass, Gobert has a remarkable minus-18.5 on/off defensive swing, which ranks in the 99th percentile. This number exceeds any of his on/off swings from his DPOY seasons. There's no more important player to his team's defensive identity and success than Gobert.

To put this on/off swing into perspective, with Gobert on the court, the Wolves' defense is equivalent to the second-best in the league. However, when he's off the court, it equates to the league's worst defense.

Gobert remains an elite rim protector. Opponents are shooting just 38.5 percent within six feet of the basket when defended by Gobert. For reference, the league average is 58.3 percent. He also averages 1.5 blocks per game. It's also worth noting that Gobert ranks in the 99th percentile for defensive estimated plus-minus.

Okay, what about defending in space isn't Gobert bad at that? No, not at all. In fact, opponents are shooting just 42.7 percent against Gobert in isolation plays, which ranks in the 72nd percentile.

This number is better than the three odds-on favorites, Holmgren, Evan Mobley, and Wembanyama. Gobert isn't as elite in isolation as guys like Bam Adebayo, Draymond Green, and Amen Thompson. However, his rim protection more than makes up for it.

If Gobert had never won DPOY, I truly believe he'd be the odds-on favorite for this award; at the very least, he'd be in the top three. Unfortunately, arguably Gobert's best defensive season is going to waste because of his previous defensive dominance.