There's no understating just how dominant Rudy Gobert has been on defense this season. Gobert's rim protection has remained elite, and his importance to the Minnesota Timberwolves' success is immense. Throughout various points of the season, Gobert has gained real steam as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. If he wins the award, Gobert would hold a record-breaking fifth DPOY.
However, two factors are working against Gobert: the health of Victor Wembanyama and voter fatigue.
Gobert is unlikely to win DPOY
Earlier in the season, it looked like Wemby wasn't going to reach the games played threshold. Nevertheless, Wemby hasn't missed time since early January, and he can still miss three more games to be eligible for awards. The more that Wembanyama stays healthy, the less likely it is that Gobert wins DPOY.
As much as I'd like to argue otherwise, Wemby is the best defender in the league, and if he plays in 65 games, it's a certainty that he'll win DPOY. It's not just Wemby's absurd 2.9 blocks per game that makes him special; it's his ability to deter opposing players from even attacking the rim and his versatility. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he's one of the most exciting young stars in the league.
I was always dubious that Gobert would win DPOY, even if Wembanyama didn't reach the 65-game minimum. It has nothing to do with his qualifications and everything to do with voter fatigue. Given the Oklahoma City Thunder's elite defense, Chet Holmgren seems like the logical candidate. Regardless, Gobert's path to winning DPOY over Chet (and others) at least seemed feasible if Wemby didn't reach the games played threshold.
Entering the final portion of the regular season, Gobert's path to winning DPOY feels bleak.
Gobert is putting together a DPOY-level season
Let me be clear, even if Gobert's chances of winning DPOY are slim, that doesn't change the fact that he's having an amazing defensive season. As has been the case for most of his career, Gobert is anchoring a top 10 defense, and one that wouldn't be close to this ranking without him.
Notably, the Wolves' defense is 12.8 points per 100 possessions better with Rudy on the court, according to Cleaning the Glass, a number that ranks in the 99th percentile. Gobert's rim protection is their entire defensive system, and when he's off the court, they are borderline hopeless.
Furthermore, opposing players are shooting just 53.6 percent within six feet of the hoop with Gobert as the closest defender. And contrary to popular belief, Gobert has been an effective defender in isolation, holding opponents to 41 percent shooting on isolation possessions.
By all accounts, Gobert is having a DPOY-worthy season, and arguably, this is the most important he's ever been to his team's defensive success. Even if he doesn't bring home a historic fifth DPOY, the Timberwolves are grateful for his elite defense.