Startling statistic offers reasoning behind Minnesota's early struggles

Following perhaps their best season in franchise history, the Minnesota Timberwolves have begun the 2024-25 season 2-2. Minnesota lost on opening night against the Los Angeles Lakers, before winning two consecutive games against the Sacramento Kings and Toronto Raptors.

In one of the most hyped games of the early season, a Western Conference Finals rematch, the Wolves squared off against the Dallas Mavericks. Despite a back-and-forth battle for much of the night, Minnesota ultimately succumbed to Dallas for the fifth time in six contests.

The Wolves shot better from the floor and three-point range and even outrebounded the Mavs, yet they conceded the turnover battle and failed to capitalize on Dallas' mistakes. The Timberwolves turned the ball over 20 times to the Mavericks' 10. To make matters worse, Dallas scored 25 points off Minnesota turnovers, while the Wolves mustered five points off the Mavs' giveaways.

Subsequently, Dallas doubled Minnesota's fastbreak points, 20 to 10. The Mavericks made the game easier, while the Wolves needed tough shotmaking to keep the game close. Anthony Edwards led the charge, totaling 37 points and drilling seven three-pointers. Of Edwards' 20 field goal attempts, 10 were tightly guarded and 13 came from the pull-up variety—further demonstrating the difficulty of Minnesota's baskets.

Sure, Edwards's shotmaking is impressive. Nevertheless, easy baskets win games. The Mavericks also scored more points in the paint, 14 more than Minnesota. Currently, the Wolves rank near the bottom of the NBA in points in the paint, averaging only 39.5 per game.

Minnesota has failed to force and create points off turnovers

What's more discouraging than Minnesota's aversion to easy buckets is the failure to produce and capitalize off its opponent's turnovers. A season ago, Minnesota ranked seventh in the association, forcing 14.2 turnovers per game. Thus far into the season, the Wolves place 28th, creating only 11.5 takeaways.

The lack of forced turnovers is an issue, but the inability to capitalize off their opponent's mistakes makes life much more difficult offensively. Minnesota ranks dead last in points off turnovers, averaging a mere 12.3 per game—a far cry from the 17.0 a season ago. The Wolves have failed to replicate last season's frenetic defense, which in turn, hurts the offense.

When assessing the best teams at forcing turnovers, the top five teams in points off turnovers made the playoffs. This season, the top five teams own a combined 63.6 win percentage. Forcing opponents to make mistakes and scoring off said mistakes is a recipe for victory. Among the worst teams at scoring points off turnovers, only one cleared the 32-win plateau from a season ago. This season, it's a similar story. The bottom five teams, including Minnesota, own a 38.0 win percentage.

Of course, forcing turnovers directly correlates to reaping the benefits of points off turnovers. A year ago, the Wolves never felt compelled to win shootouts. While categorizing Minnesota's early-season games as shootouts is slightly exaggerated (Minnesota ranks 21st in points for and 13th in points against), the Timberwolves' already substandard scoring capabilities limit their margin for error, especially in games where the point total crosses the 220 mark.

Possessing the best defense and one that forced a bevy of turnovers increased Minnesota's margin for error a season ago. The offense hasn't necessarily suffered because of the team's inability to force turnovers. The Timberwolves rank 12th in field goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Nonetheless, the reliance on difficult shots isn't a typical indicator of high marksmanship rates. If shots aren't falling, the Wolves will be in trouble without a propensity to score in the paint, transition, or off turnovers.